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Technology Stocks : Qwest Communications (Q) (formerly QWST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Epics who wrote (4670)	7/23/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: RTev	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6846

I'd like to hear a bit more real discussion of what folks here think of the future for the new QWST. I'll offer these thoughts as one who just watches these outfits from the edge and without the sort of in-depth knowledge that others can offer. I figure that there are several things that will hold down this stock for some time to come. One of those things is the threat that BLS will buy out the combination and make it into a true lumbering monster. But there's also a factor of perception that I'm not sure is entirely fair to USW. So many of the analyses of the company mention its "largely rural" coverage area when that's not entirely fair. The west (the former Mountain Bell and PNB areas of USW) is and always has been more urbanized than any other area of the country. US West has historically served those cities and towns and left the scattered population elsewhere to independent and co-op phone companies. Many of its recent problems with the activist state regulators within the region have to do with the figuring out a way to recreate some kind of universal service pricing that works fairly in a competitive environment. Some analysts have at least recognized that the USW covers areas that are growing faster than other regions of the country. To see what those areas are, one need only take a look at the small footprint for USW's PCS service. It serves only a tiny fraction of their vast territorial region, but offers service to a near majority of their customers. DSL services follow a similar pattern (with additional rollouts only in the state capitols where the regulators live). And those few cities where the majority of USW customers reside are very desirable for the kind of advanced services on which both QWST and USW say their future depends. One thing that doesn't seem unfair is the frequent mention by analysts of US West's reputation as "US Worst". They really do have problems there. Anyone who has ever tried to get through their trouble reporting will provide horror stories of incompetence. That will be a major problem for the new QWST because the issues seem to be so deeply ingrained. Example: Last year I experienced one of those service horror stories. I won't go into it here, but what seemed scary is that it's not a new situation. My father worked for Mountain Bell for 45 years. He's been retired for 15 years, but when I told him the service story, he smiled and said it sounded all-too familiar. Will the combination of QWST and USW change that? Maybe not since some here who know QWST indicate that it lacks the sort of corporate culture that could reinvigorate USW. But I can't help but hope that USW will be changed when it gets as its CEO a man like Nacchio who is not imbued with the RBOC culture. He spent much of his career at AT&T while it transformed itself into a successful company in a competitive environment. Am I being foolish to think that will make a difference? Comments welcome. Another possibly hopeful sign is US West's willingness to transform itself. It sold off its original wireless network, allowing it to start from scratch with the more advanced PCS system. It built up and then divested UMG (to the great benefit of its shareholders thanks to AT&T). Maybe those actions were mistakes, but they indicate a willingness to "go lean" when the technology passes by an older system. [Disclosure: I hold a small chunk of QWST (currently at a loss) and no USW, but I'm a USW DSL customer with enough other services to pay them a hefty bill each month. ]