To: Mani1 who wrote (3227 ) 7/23/1999 5:10:00 PM From: Kurt M. Matis Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3645
Mani, Hard to tell. I thought they were still having a little trouble with their design, and that was pushing back production. I thought they'd have it figured out by the end of June, in order to be able to announce some progress. In terms of Preferred Capital, Alger was one of the biggest advocates of the company when he began coverage. When everyone first started downgrading, he was reiterating his strong buy recommendation. I think he kind of got burned by management with the surprise production issues, while Morgan and others were "in the know". While other brokerages were downgrading initially in Jan/Feb and again in May, he was late to the party and had to downgrade twice in May, which made it seem like he was trying to "catch up". On the conference call, he seemed a little agitated at management and asked how long ago they knew about the production problems. Personally, I don't think he'd stick his neck out here unless he felt comfortable things were turning around. I also wouldn't be surprised if management were a little more upfront with information, considering his past street support. NationsBank and Morgan don't have to upgrade too early because they know they can drive this stock at will. Additionally, they'll be accumulating shares at a lower price for their investors before putting out any upgrade. MS (Edelstone) is the one that can really drive this stock. If you look at past history, MS came out with their February '99 downgrade approximately 2-3 weeks before earnings. In May, they came out with downgrade apprx. 9 days before earnings. If they are going to have an upgrade/(downgrade - hopefully not) before this earnings announcement, I would expect to see it in either next week or the week of August 2nd. JMHO