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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (52973)	7/23/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: TheStockFairy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Sometimes I try to predict the weather by the moistness of my cat's feet. For the most part, on rainy days they appear to be wet, but only if the cat has been outside.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (52973)	7/24/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Heinz, this differs from what I have seen from a few sources. I think you could see a panic anytime from now until the later part of Sept. the eclipse study pegs the ideal time frame for a panic at between july 22 and august 3. it has to happen between the lunar and solar eclipses, closer to the lunar eclipse, to be consistent with past statistics. note this info from Eliades web site: ~~Notice that Puetz does not require that the full moon be a lunar eclipse (all lunar eclipses are full moons, but not all full moons are lunar eclipses), only that the full moon (that has typically accompanied, within days, the beginning of the 2-4 week major declines that lead to one or two day climactic crashes) be within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The last solar eclipse occurred on August 21-22, 1998. The October full moon occurs on October 5, six weeks and 2 days after the solar eclipse. That is just outside the conditions originally noted by Puetts that accompanied market crashes in the past. It is the main reason we originally neglected the mid-October time period as a possible crash zone. Be aware, however that the Carolan research actually places its focus point for potential market crashes or panics on what he calls the 28th day of the seventh lunar month. That would mean that the primary time period this year for a market panic or crash would be October 16 or 17, not September 17-18.~~~ stockmarketcycles.com This is from the AstroEcon.com site: astroecon.com The below quote was posted on AstroEcon on May 16th. Sometimes it is easier to see things at a distance rather than so close that the heat of battle distracts from the basic principals involved. July 26th. Sun opposition Neptune squared by Jupiter. This is an EXTREMELY inflationary T square aspect pattern. A July 28th full moon eclipse adds kick to the T square. By this time we may be in full retreat with rising interest rates taking a toll on stocks. July 28th A Lunar eclipse with extreme close contact to Jupiter and Neptune square. Bonds should be in BIG trouble. August 8th. This is a Grand Cross involving Sun Mars Uranus and Saturn. A Grand Cross can be considered a "constantly rotating crisis". This crisis period may only last a few weeks but may leave a lasting impression. Extreme caution is urged on speculation. This may be associated with a VERY large drop in stocks. August 11th Solar eclipse. This is a more negative eclipse than the Feb 16th eclipse as per the definition by Saros cycle. Coming right after the Grand Cross on the 8th may mean CRASHLIKE action will follow. * * * * Heinz, so theoretically, you could take the full moon on August 26, as the starting point for a 2-4 week decline that would be culminated with a severe decline. Since it is within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. Moving us as far out as Sept 23. That would also be within the concept of being near an the autumnal equinox. AN Additional thought is that the eclipse occurring on Aug 11th will be the same Saros cycle as the one occuring in the summer of 1981, they are thought to have the same energies. Saros Cycle Eclipses (either Lunar or Solar) occur when the line of nodes points towards Earth. This periodicity is called the Saros cycle, and has a period of 18 years and 10.3 days. arval.org.ve Could it be that the huge bull market in Gold Oil and other Hard Assets in the 1970's that came to a climax in 1980 and then collapsed will now have a mirror image in a stock mania that ends near the next Saros cycle turn. I have laid this out as an exercise in logic of just following the parameters that these different theorists have statistically considered, since we have started this conversation. I will say that according to the research we are in a window of time in the next 2 months where the statistical chance of a crash is higher than normal, However the statistical probability of a crash is still mathematically very low as they are a generational event that is by definition very rare. If we did not have considerations of record stock market overvaluation, coupled with an impending significant Global Y2K problem, magnified by the chance of serious military conflict in China, India-Pakistan, Iran, and potentially Russia. I would not be considering the possibility of a bear market. An additional consideration is the power vacuum that currently exists this coming year. Rubin is gone. Clinton is a lame duck, who will not guide us into 2001 and Greenspan, may decline reappointment to the Fed or may not be able or willing to serve another term due to age, health and lifestyle concerns. So the big 3 who have provided us the ability to hold the center will certainly not all be there and quite possibly none of the triumvirate will be. When I was in college , several sociology texts, had comments about millenial madness and so that is an additional flash point that can cause irrational behavior both in this record market runup of the 1990's and in an upcoming crash, if we are to see one. John PS. I would be interested in seeing any data or research that supports or conflicts with what these folks have come up with. And anyone who has had success in Asto Cycles such as Arch Crawford is using TA ahead of any cyclical consideration. Crawford is an excellent Technical Analyst who worked for Merill Lynch under THe famous market technician Robert Farell, So Crawford could throw out his cyclic work and still do great job.