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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/23/1999 8:28:00 PM
From: SeaViewer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: In 1929 I think only riches played stock market. Average J6P couldn't even pay the commission. Today the whole nation is tied to stock market.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/23/1999 8:44:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Also, I recall "Joseph G" and others saying that trading on margin was not nearly as popular in 1929 as has been claimed. Tom

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/23/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: JF Quinnelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Last summer a couple of 30-somethings were standing in front of me in the grocery line, discussing their financial wiles. Seems that they were maxxing out their credit, in bankcards and home-equity lines of credit, and were plowing everything they could get into mutual funds. The only limit was how-much-credit could their incomes finance... if these wizards weren't scared by last fall's little tumble then I'd bet their conviction has only been re-inforced. Leverage is King.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/24/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Absolutely no doubt about it in my opinion! We are definitely more margined and vulnerable today than we were in 1929, or 1987 for that matter. I know one guy who is refusing to pay off 50% of his credit card debt, because he argues that he can do better in the market with that $25,000 than paying down the debt at an average interest rate of 15%. Some of these folks are just a few bricks short of a full load, and it increasingly shows!!! Heaven help us, because it is going to be one hell of a rough ride. Yogi

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/24/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

>>Conclusion: As a nation, we are much more margined and vulnerable to a market downturn than we were in 1929. << Oh and what else is different between now and 1929? Hmmm let's see what you missed...oh, how about that women did not make up a large percentage of the work force in 1929...dual income families came on the scene in the 1970's, economic full employment now...

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/24/1999 5:56:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

MB, >>Conclusion: As a nation, we are much more margined and vulnerable to a market downturn than we were in 1929. You are correct. One point I would make is that fair percentage of our "middle class" working age people with 401K's or like accounts are living on the edge. i.e. all income goes to pay the bills on a monthly bases. What will happen if income is lost they will have to start dipping into the 401K or like accounts to meet the payment requirements. This is a double edged sword with things the way they are now..this group of people will quit spending and start drawing down the "market" accounts. I have thought about Flecks conjecture that this market could fall under its own weight and grind down slowly. This will cause a lot of pain over a long period of time instead of seeing the BK which will cause immediate pain. I can not see in the future, but there is a point in time where the consumer can not keep spending at increasing rates and things will slow down to a point where the current market fundamentals will not make sense on wall street.<ggg> BTW, when I bought my first car, where I lived the banks were not lending money, using the car as an asset. One had to have "real" assets to obtain loans, like land, grain in storage, etc. <ggg> Joan

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (65137)	7/29/1999 1:59:00 AM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

mike-- as if i needed a reason to read this thread (other than you being on it<G>), you graciously provide another. you analysis is dead on. while i dont think we are going to go through some kind of depression, we are surely heading for a major recession. i have friends who are graduating from college, maxing out new CCs with advances and buying... you guessed it: net stocks! one friend bought a new house, a new car, new furniture, on and on with proceeds from some options that recently vested. he spent the entire tranche AND is now even further in the hole than when he started. he's not worried though, because in december some more options vest. the problem is, he isnt cashing them out, he is going to stay in the stock. nevermind the fact that his employer is one of the nets.... i only have one thing i am really worried about... that the collapse is WORSE than i think it will be and there will be no one to buy my puts. at least last year someone was there to buy<G>. good luck to all, trey