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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen who wrote (20982)	7/24/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: j.o.	Respond to of 99985

Back in the interbank market we had a saying...when in doubt, stay out! It's one of the most important things to remember. Don't increase the volatility of your returns by going with high risk/reward trades...and that's what you get when trading without conviction. Always know where you will get out (on both sides) before you get in. Otherwise the professionals will pick you clean. John

To: Stephen who wrote (20982)	8/24/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

Well, a couple of my girls have returned to England ... and give or take some other things I have to spend time on .... its time to focus on the market again. I have lots to catch up on. However a cursory look tells me this is no time to go long. - 10 day trin did a quick reversal back up to overbought. It rarely does that with any substantive move. - The DOW has made a new high, but a look at the sectors tells me the move has generally been made on the back of more 'defensive' stocks. My dummy portfolios are still well off their highs with one exception. This can be interpreted any way one wants ... but to me it seems like there will be investors looking for any reason to sell once the FOMC is out of the way. - Historically September is a pretty awful month for stocks. With only economic numbers & then earnings warnings to come before an earnings rally, why take a chance with profits that are in the bag. There may well be sidelined money, but there is also money that failed to cash out at the previous peaks that will look to get it right this time. Everyone seems to think that Y2K is going to be a big yawn. Personally, I feel that given that there has been recognition that many other countries do not have their act together, counterparty risk for derivative transactions is apalling. Its not inconceivable that financial institutional internal country risk ratings will be upped, spreads widened and that there is a resultant drying up of liquidity. Its time for these things to start kicking in.... though who knows when it will be made public. I could ramble on .... but the dog has his legs crossed and that tells me he's ready for his nightly constitutional. Seems I missed a lot of excitement. Too bad .... though on second thoughts maybe I missed a lot of stress too !! Good luck everyone.... lets see if we sell the news ... Stephen