To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (69301 ) 7/24/1999 8:29:00 PM From: GST Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
Yen Seen Extending Gains Against Dollar as Japanese Stocks Attract Buyers By Mark Tannenbaum Yen Seen Gaining vs Dollar as Japanese Stocks Attract Buyers (Repeats story from July 23, adds comment in 12th paragraph.) New York, July 24 (Bloomberg) -- The yen, which rose almost 4 percent this week against the dollar, will likely extend its gains in coming days as international investors buy the currency to purchase Japanese stocks. ''It's pretty apparent that the flows are more biased toward accumulating yen'' by foreign investors, as well as by Japanese investors bringing home profits, said Bob Lynch, a currency strategist at Paribas Corp. The yen will probably rise ''unless the Bank of Japan takes on a more active role'' selling. The yen rose to 116.51 per dollar from 116.86 Thursday in New York. The Japanese currency strengthened to 116.15 earlier, its highest level since Feb. 16. The dollar was little changed at $1.0501 per euro from $1.0508. On the week, the euro gained 3 percent. The yen could gain to 115 per dollar next week, even if the Bank of Japan intervenes, said Clark McGinn, head of foreign exchange sales at Royal Bank of Scotland. ''The sheer volume of buying by foreign investors in the equity market means there's a bunch of yen buyers out there,'' said Peter Lucas, who helps oversee 600 million pounds ($950 million) as global investment strategist at Ashburton (Jersey) Limited, in Britain's Channel Islands. Net Buyers Foreigners were net buyers of Japanese stocks last week for the 25th time in 26 weeks, purchasing about $4 billion more than they sold, according to figures from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. That overseas appetite has propelled the yen higher in recent weeks to the chagrin of Japanese officials who are concerned that a stronger yen could dampen exports and stifle an economic rebound. Japan grew at a faster-than-expected 1.9 percent clip in the January-March quarter, a rate government officials say is unsustainable. That broke a string of five straight quarters of contraction. The BOJ has sold yen seven times since June 10 in an attempt to keep the currency from appreciating too much. With each successive intervention, however, traders have become more skeptical that the currency would hold its gains. The ''big stick'' of intervention wielded by the Bank of Japan ''is turning out to be a toothpick,'' said McGinn. Even if the BOJ intervenes next week, ''people might try to give them a run for their money'' and continue to bid the yen higher. Japanese finance officials also hinted that foreign exchange intervention may not be succeeding. ''There has been a trend in the yen's rise, and it's not a good idea to confront the forex market head on, and there are a variety of techniques needed,'' said Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa. Still, ''our basic stance is we won't leave any wild swings as they are.'' Euro 'Should Appreciate'' The euro as well may gain against the dollar next week on growing optimism the 11-nation region's largest economies are reviving. ''The underlying trend is still positive'' for the euro, said Ian Morris, an international economist at HSBC Markets in London. ''It is still undervalued and should appreciate in the coming months.'' The currency got a boost after a survey by the Ifo economic research institute Tuesday showed German business optimism rose in June. Reports Friday showed consumer prices accelerated in four Western German states in July, boosted by higher energy prices. Accelerating inflation could help the euro by fueling speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates. Still, some traders weren't impressed with the euro's recent turnaround. ''I don't see there's any inherently sustainable positive news this week compared to last week,'' said Royal Bank of Scotland's McGinn. Interest rate differentials also still point in the favor of the U.S., and will support the dollar in the medium-term by drawing capital to U.S. financial assets, said Diego Giurleo, manager of foreign exchange sales at Royal Bank of Canada. Three-month dollar Libor yields 5.21 percentage points more than similar maturity yen Libor, 17 basis points more than the average for the last three months. And dollar Libor offers 2.63 percentage points more than euribor, 10 basis points more than the three-month average. Given those differentials, ''the dollar doesn't look bad at all,'' said Giurleo. ©1999 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks