'World Bank Experts Focus on African Nations' Y2K Risks and Readiness
(Warn that effect on some countries could be serious) (790)
By Leslie Koelsch
USIA Staff Writer
Washington -- African countries, less reliant on computer technology
than are industrial countries, nevertheless are vulnerable to
disruptions from the Year 2000 computer problem, warns the World
Bank's Y2K coordinator for Africa.
The Bank's Bobak Rezaian and Yohannes Kebede, assistant Y2K
coordinator for the region, briefed educators, international aid
agency officials and African nationals on how African infrastructures
and supply chains could be affected by the Y2K problem, during a
seminar at the Tulane Institute for International Development July
8th.
"Although the level of automation and computerization is limited in
the [African] continent as a whole, the impact of Y2K on some
countries could be severe because the level of dependency on systems
is high," Rezaian said. For instance, many African nations have only
one or two power generation plants, unlike the complex power grids of
industrialized nations, he explained, nor do they have contingency
plans in case of failures.
The energy industries in the region tend to be built on inflexible
systems, usually having only one source of production, and delivery
channels that cross numerous national borders, he said. For example,
17 nations in Africa rely on power purchased from neighboring
countries. Consequently, supply fluctuations caused by Y2K glitches in
one country could ripple into others.
Cross-border and customs issues' relevance to Y2K have also been
greatly ignored, including their socio-economic implications, said
Rezaian. Eighty-nine percent of imports come from outside the
continent and a significant portion arrives by sea transport.
Landlocked countries rely on ports in coastal countries for exporting
their raw materials and for imports of food and other manufactured
goods. Coastal countries rely on the duties from the transfer and sale
of goods. These often account for the single greatest source of
revenue -- as much as 70 percent in one country.
Problems with customs and duties paperwork alone, not including port
equipment breakdown, would be enough to upset the distribution system,
costing the region millions of dollars a day, he said. Disruptions in
the critical areas of power and transportation could further weaken
struggling small- and medium-size businesses. If only one of Africa's
highly interdependent industries or economies fails, he warned, it
could create a regional domino effect.
Many countries throughout Africa are faced with constraints when it
comes to dealing with Y2K, Rezaian said. The computer systems that the
countries rely on generally were introduced by former colonial powers
or donated by international aid agencies, and "most are archaic,
enigmatic systems that redouble the difficulty of remediating them."
Another common obstacle in some of these countries is that they do not
have lists of national priorities, nor are critical operations
identified by key decisionmakers, according to Rezaian. Some
governments have more immediate problems such as AIDS, malaria and
civil unrest, making them reluctant to devote a share of their limited
resources to Y2K preparations.
Rezaian did not suggest that the Y2K fate of Africa has already been
decided. He said it may be late for the continent as a whole to fix
all of its systems, but it should accelerate its efforts and, at the
same time, begin national business continuity plans to function as
well as possible under trying circumstances. These plans should:
identify core business processes, develop national contingency plans,
test business continuity plans for critical operations, validate
strategy and mobilize international resources and support.
Rezaian noted that the World Bank has several assistance programs in
place that countries could utilize to help them deal with the Y2K
problem. For instance, the Bank's InfoDev program offers
implementation grants of up to $500,000, to which governments must
commit matching funds valued at two to ten times the donated amount.
To date, $28 million dollars has been committed and InfoDev is
currently looking for more contributions to continue the grant
program. The Bank also is reallocating funds from existing programs to
Y2K projects, and offers streamlined Y2K loans.
It will be a much more involved process to solve Y2K problems after
the year 2000 date change, Rezaian and Kebede said, and they called on
countries to do all they can now. For example, data that is corrupted
by Y2K problems will yield unreliable results, and when those results
are passed to other systems, and new data is generated from them, the
problems will be compounded.
Y2K disruptions to the African continent's infrastructure and supply
lines could damage systems that have minor or no Y2K problems of their
own, they said, and they warned that such challenges could reverse
progress achieved in economic renewal, environmental conservation and
self-determination.
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