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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: engineer who wrote (117)	7/24/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 13582

"does it mean some redistribution of revenues? Yes. Will it hurt them? Probably not, as I once learned....grow the pie and try to keep as much of the portion that you have and your portion of the pie will be larger than before. Or said otherwise, if you have a 10% market share and the size of the market gets bigger, then if you can keep the 10%, you win. If you try to get 50% of the market, but the market gets alot smaller, then you probably have lost." The problem, that I forsee is a huge ramp up of production by ERICY, NOKIA, MOT, AND Qcom will be faster then demand growth at some point. I think this wont happen for 8-12 months.I think CDMA(IS95) will hit a wall at some point. As long as GSM can upgrade their air interface they have no compelling reason to switch to IS95 now. Furthermore they will continue to buildout GSM knowing that they will upgrade later. Unless 3G acceptence and buildout accelerates, or China adopts CDMA on a massive scale there will be a lull at some point in the next two years where Q's rev and earnings will stall. The fact that it is so difficult to figure out earnings models between IPR/and phone sales makes that lull unpredictible.