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To: James Connolly who wrote (5940)7/25/1999 2:40:00 AM
From: lkj  Respond to of 10309
 
James,

Someone on the George Gilder - Forbes ASAP thread asked George about Terayon:

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Mr. Gilder,

A poster at clearstation.com, named systemBuilder, had this to say about Terayon:

"Sure Terayon has patented, superior technology, but you cannot access the technology if your cable company is stupid and buys a crappy head-end from Motorola or Nortel or Cisco - like most cable companies have already done !!! Also, once they bring fiber into the neighborhoods (long-term trend) it's all over for Terayon."

Would you agree?

CF Rebel
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Here is George's reply:

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Yes, it's all over for Terayon, Cisco, Tellabs, AT&T, all the DSL barons, and most of the telecom establishment when a meteor hits the earth, worldwide nuclear conflagration breaks out, Birnham Wood comes to Dunsinane, or fiber comes to the home--whichever happens first. I don't know about this Birnham guy, but hopefully, fiber to the home will be spreading incrementally on the bleeding edge for the next ten years. And yes, retarded legacy systems will not readily accommodate Terayon, but they will accommodate Terayon better than they can accommodate any of the other non-CDMA modems, which are much more sensitive to the flaws and noise in the existing plant. Meanwhile, Terayon will dominate all the new buys in the cable modem market around the globe.
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Regards,

Khan



To: James Connolly who wrote (5940)7/25/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: peter grossman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10309
 
Thanks for spotting this apparent customer. Do you think it is possible to guess potential run time royalties from whatever assumptions make most sense?

From Terayon's last quarterly report, they shipped 58,000 cable modem systems. Also, they are "on track with development of (their) next generation DOCSIS cable modem system."

So, my questions are:

Is it your thought that VxWorks is in the shipping cable modem system?
If so, all such systems?
Can we guess a unit royalty?
Can we then guess plausible projected royalty revenue stream scenarios for WIND?
Can we do the same for other customers?

-Peter