To: Robert Graham who wrote (2040 ) 7/25/1999 10:14:00 AM From: N2GROWTH Respond to of 18137
Sector Rotation: TradePortal.com's TradeMatrix Robert: The question you are asking is a very important aspect for the serious short term trader. I spent 17 years as a stock broker and founded my own Investment Banking firm. I retired 2 years ago and spent all of my time trading and developing strategies to find in real time where the money is moving in the market. I developed a trading technique to sort the entire market into Indices like the MSH, SOX, INX, BTK, BKX, etc. The total came to 35 Indices. I developed a software program that will dynamically update all of these Indices in real time. When the market opens in the morning, you can see in the first 60 seconds which group is taking the lead on the upside and vice versa the downside. If the top group is the GHA Goldman Hardware Index you click on the index and now all of the stocks making up this Index are displayed and sorted by volume, % change, point change, or alphabetically. Next you click on the top performing stocks and your analysis begins by opening a full featured charting window in any time frame and with over 45 technical studies. I spent a great deal of time talking to leading hedge fund managers while I was developing this software. I found that the best short term traders were using many different tools to accomplish this type of market sorting. What you have struck on here is what I believe to be the key to short term successful trading. How many times have you decided to buy a stock based on your analysis only to watch the market move higher and the stock you purchased goes down? This happened to me on thousand's of trades. I would later see that the group this stock was in was under selling pressure and I wished I had a way of seeing this before I bought the stock. Now I only buy stocks in the best performing groups and short stocks in the worst performing groups. I am not writing this as a solicitation for the TradeMatrix software, I am writing to tell you that you have something here....There are many different ways you can do this type of sorting now without my software, but it takes more work on your part. For starters, you can go the dailystocks.com link. Look under the Market section and you will see "Industry Indices." This will list all of the major indices where they are trading at with their percentage change. This is not dynamically update so you will have to refresh often. Also, they are sorted alpha, so you have to look very carefully to determine which group is performing the best or worst. I strongly recommend that you make your selections based on percentage change, not point change. For example, the XCI Computer Technology Index was up over 10 points and the Goldman Hardware GHA Index was up only 8 points. The GHA was up over 2% while the XCI was up 1%. Next, you will need to look inside of each of these groups and determine what stock is causing the most influence. I have found that many times when a particular stock is in the new for earnings or a analyst upgrade/downgrade, there is a terrific opportunity to look at the other leaders in the same group. Large funds often move or shift money from sectors all at once. If they decided to increase their holding from 2% of the fund to 4% of the fund in the banking sector, you will see which stock is clearly the favorite and which selections are moving in sympathy. I hope this helps you Robert. Regards, Merrick Okamoto, President TradePortal.com, LLC