To: jmanvegas who wrote (37104 ) 7/25/1999 3:40:00 AM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 152472
jmanvegas, Globalstar has nothing to do with Cinecomm digital cinema, which will NOT be travelling via the Globalstar system [not in the first two constellations anyway]. They will be using a low cost geostationary satellite. Globalstar has a rotten slow data rate which will be suitable for voice only [and a few messages, emails and stuff like that]. Constellation2 will have a better data rate [I think it was about 144kbps] but that is 5 years away. On technical analysis, having been to the official head and shoulders club in London [admittedly a decade ago] and listened to the discussions [by fund managers in charge of $$billions] it's my opinion that it is largely mumbo jumbo. Which is not to say that the herd behaviour of people can't be modelled in some way. The great difficulty with TA is that it is a self-predicting system and self-changing system. It's a bit like Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in which you can't measure the position and momentum of an electron simultaneously. You try to measure one and the other damn well slips away. But it's much worse than that in the sense that TA is the equivalent of the electron trying to measure itself. Imagine for example, that TA reaches a great level of accuracy. A triple-topped chart with a head-and-shoulders formation covering the 90 day moving average with stochastic variables in the Elliot Wave function inflecting to an asymptotic deterministic position. Any TA worth his salt, [not 'her' because this is not a gender sensitive topic and women can't read maps up the right way let alone TA charts - also, anyone who wants to discuss gender issues should know right here and now that girls do better than boys at school because they cheat!! They use bigger brains because they get their pubescent growth spurt and rapid increase of brain matter about 3 years earlier than boys on average, stochastically speaking - so they obviously do a lot better at things which require brains. But notice what happens next = boys cheat by spending more time in developmental time so their neurons get a LOT more experiential stuff before they are hard-wired so they do much better than girls in the later stages. Since boys spend a lot longer upside down and running around in trees than girls, they get better spatial relations. Girls are stuck with that boring socialized stuff which they had in the early years involving a lot of verbal interaction. Two girls on a bridge look at the view and interact verbally with each other. Two boys on a bridge see who can pee further, which gives them early training on curves, graphs and results.] Okay, back on track. Any TA worth his salt, would know that that is a BIG sell signal. I mean the inflectional deterministic wave function, not Alan Green$pan peeing on the stock market. But real TA types, guys who really know their stuff, would know that if all the TA people were correctly doing the TA, they'd already have seen the formations arriving and would have sold, or bought, thereby wrecking the formation which they are hoping to use. My good friend jfred told me about Goedel Escher Bach and this self-referential [not self-reverential] stuff a few days ago. Good luck building a TA model. Rule number one in pyschological studies of rats and other beasties is that they damn well do as they like. Even a bloody rat won't just sit in the box and push the lever as expected to fit sweetly into a nice, stochastic analysis. So if a dumb rat won't perform as expected, good luck with knowing how a raving mob of humans who don't have the concentration and single-mindedness of rats are going to behave when the head and shoulders formation rears its ugly, well, head. Mqurice