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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (69374)	7/24/1999 6:10:00 PM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>Now throw in the fact that these companies >>are operating in a brand new groundbreaking >>business or medium that has such broad implications >>in our technological future, well...you can see >>where the confusion begins, hence the volatility. The idea that the "groundbreaking" technology of the internet will lead to some revolutionary change in the factors that guide our economy is the fuel that propels net stocks to their heights. But as I have stated in previous posts, I believe there is a tendency to be overly optimistic about things that are unknown and in the future - especially when there is the belief that such things can make you a lot of money. If you peruse Scientific American magazines from the late 1800s and the first half of this century, you will find articles that speculate on the revolutionary impact of various new technological developments - I've read about the potential impact of home telegraph, package and message delivery through systems of pneumatic tubes, mass intercontinental passenger transport via zeppelin, how radio will obsolete print, how television will obsolete radio. In truth, it is very difficult to predict how the future will pan out. Amazon has done a better job taking advantage of the web than any other retailer. But, there is intense competition in retail. And I believe the web provides a medium that will only serve to amplify retail competition. As such, I can't see Amazon attaining anything close to a monopolistic position - in retail in general, or in any retail category. And as existing retailers move to the web, I think Amazon will find it more and more difficult to carve positions in different retail categories. It did well in books because it was first - but even the fact that Amazon was first in books has not stopped Barnes & Nobler, Borders and others. But I believe it will be harder and harder for Amazon to find categories in which it can be first. -Eric