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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dospesos who wrote (6868)	7/24/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Tom Byron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82027

Hi Aurophile: this Goldsheet page has 9000+ links, including 850+ mining companies(i didn't realize that there were still 850 mines left and opened.). goldsheet.simplenet.com Have not taken the time to explore this site to much recently, what with the price of gold and gold stocks being what they are.. one could probably throw a dart these days at the 850+ links page and came out pretty well in the long run. ahhh, but ya want to stay away from Bre-X Part II types...:) tomorrow, i'm going to angle island in the SF Bay for our "24 gathering" of old friend's from the early 70's who met in San Francisco at that time. weather seems to be warming up here FINALLY. hope that i see blue skies in the morning for the lst time in weeks. (there have been sunny afternoons). it can get quite cold on angle island when that fog comes in. good luck with ya trading. Tom B

To: dospesos who wrote (6868)	7/25/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82027

Hello, hello old friend, it will not be the first time I am right for the wrong reasons and wrong while maintaining the "real rational" point of view (VBG). I held that we would be bound in the DOW 5000 to 10,000 up to about 2005, well, the top of this range was pierced. The reasoning (extremely rich valuations of future earnings) might still be valid, but go and tell that to the market (G). As for Gold, I still hold the "faulty" thesis that gold's currency role is dead, or at least is rapidly dying. Similarly, I hold the view that the CB's have been planning the dethroning of gold as a reserve asset for a long time, doing otherwise will bring with it dangers of worldwide inflation. This, for the same reasons you state, for gold to become again an important reserve assets, the above ground value of gold that is used as "reserve assets" by CB's should be at least something of the order of 5% of the world gross product or ten times its current value, if that were to happen, major economic dislocations would ensue, and furthermore, this "one time" readjustment would not solve the problem of creeping prices, since even at $2,500 you will need to find about 1000 tonnes or more of gold per year (on top of gold used for industrial and jewelry applications, which is what, about 2000 tonnes per year and growing itself with economic growth?) to support world economic activity growth, a permanent "sodom bed". As for some good gold and Pt stocks, while gold has finally reached that $250/ounce we discussed many many months ago, if you treat it as purely a commodity, you must admit that the above ground supply ready to come on the market every time gold gets close to $300 is still overwhelming, and thus should only concentrate on those companies that can make good money even at $250 (like Barrick?). A good signal of a bull market in gold would be a breach of $300, but I am not optimistic that we are close to that any time soon. I am sure that some more refined models will have an earlier "warning" signal if a breach of the recent support just under $280 would occur, but IMHO, such a breach, unless confirmed with a breakout above $300, might just be one more of many disappointing breakouts we have had in the last few years. Zeev PS, one of the better indicators that we may be far from a bottom is indeed Tom's citing of close to 1000 entities still looking feverishingly at mining gold, should we not see contraction of gold mines near a bottom rather than such huge proliferation?

To: dospesos who wrote (6868)	7/25/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82027

Tom: After being out for some time I have recently put 10% of my assets in gold funds. Zeev has been right about gold so far, but I wonder how much longer. I do recall he was bearish on oil and the Nikkei near the lows. So he is as fallible as the rest of us. I have lost a little more on gold this year, but have made big bucks in oil and the Nikkei. Kitco's best gold forecster has just turned from super bear to super bull on the yellow. The next few months will be VERY INTERESTING.

To: dospesos who wrote (6868)	7/25/1999 2:17:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 82027

Tom: You and Zeev seem to agree that the CBs want to get rid of their gold. I am not so sure. The prime objective of the US financial establishment is to drive POG down and keep it down as long as possible. If they dumped it all, they could no longer control POG. Their primary weapon in this war is leasing gold to short sellers at absurdly low interest rates. CB selling has not picked up much during this gold bear, but leasing volume has exploded. To be sure the environment of increasing US global dominance would have triggered a severe bear market in gold these past few years withou any CB sales or leasing. But the war on gold conducted by the US and some other nations has made a bad situation much worse. But just as it is getting harder and harder for the powers that be to keep levitating the stock market as the Dow pushes ever higher, so it is getting harder to keep pushing gold down as the price sinks. With many mines unprofitable at $250, it will require a truly heroic effort by the anti-gold forces to drive POG much lower from here.