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Technology Stocks : Mattson Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stewart who wrote (1546)	7/25/1999 8:49:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 3661

John, You're right, I did miss the point. Further, my arithmetic sucks. I'd been discussing MTSN's historic revenues before I made a freudian slip in projecting $500M revenues, then mis-labeling them as earnings. It was a nice trick, but not even Chainsaw Al could successfully pull that one off. I think it would at least take the entire accounting, CFO and CEO team from the former HBOC. I understand that they're all looking for jobs now. ;-) I would like to see $500M in profits, but I think it will take 1 more cycle:') Should this happen within 2 or 3 more cycles, I will know that I've died and gone to heaven. That would represent absolutely phenomenal growth. I'd be rather pleased if the top line got there. My even worse error was calling 1% of the CVD market about $200M. No, the CVD market is not 50% larger than the entire equipment market. I filed my market breakdown info into a one-way filing system. (It's hardcopy.) But I believe the whole CVD market is in the order of $3-$4B and growing. I don't know how much of the total market segment MTSN's CVD tool could serve. If I ASSUME about 1/4 to 1/3, that leaves MTSN with about a $1B potential for which it has close to 0 market share today. To take MTSN's top line to $500M would require MTSN to capture more than 20% of that market not 1%. To do that against AMAT, NVLS and TEL may not be achievable in a single cycle. Each of these companies are better funded, much larger with very competent management relative to capturing Strip from GSNX. None of them are going to willingly sit by and watch MTSN take share no matter how much I like that. Nonetheless, I still think that MTSN will have a measurable share of CVD; and that it's price will improve from here even if it doesn't approach high double digits this cycle. Sorry for the slip ups. Ian