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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herbert W. Landon who wrote (7141)	7/25/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Mr. Landon: re:< warning us about high PE's while maintaining a bullish position.> You failed to mention that unlike two years ago, Brinker is also warning about further FED rate hikes coming in reaction to an overheating U.S. economy as a result of: (1) Increased exports due to increased demand from the synchronous recovery of the depressed economies of Japan, Far East and Latin America. (2) FED slowing of growth in the money supply reflected in the 3-month and 6-month growth in M2 and M3. (3) The tightness in the labor market reflected by recent low reported unemployment rates and the shortage of skilled labor which could lead to inflationary wage hikes as employers bid for scarce available workers. (4) The high level of investor complacency reflected in the large number of people quitting their day jobs to become day traders, the stubbornly high 65%-70% Bullish sentiment of investment advisors as a percent of bulls plus bears, the low Put-Call Ratio (.40 to .55) in recent months, and the low level of liquid assets held be mutual funds (4.7%). (5) That fact that P/E's have risen to record heights during a period when Long Bond interest rates have risen from 4.75% to approximately 6%. During Spring-Summer 1987, interest rates rose in tandem with the parabolic rise in the DOW. Although the S&P was up 5.5% that year, those who bought in the July-August period got creamed during the so called "crash of 87". Picking single things Brinker says out of context does not support your view in my opinion. P

To: Herbert W. Landon who wrote (7141)	7/25/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: mister topes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

He can go wrong very easily. He is recommended a l00% invested position pending further developments in his long term timing model. If the market collapses from here he will turn out to be wrong. What could be more obvious. He is putting his record on the line by continuing to stay fully invested while he discusses possible future developments he is watching. Why does he bother to tell people what he is thinking about possible future market developments? Instead, he should just talk about refinancing mortgages and setting up a Roth I.R.A. and not even discuss the market. This way, he and only he would have the benefits of the timing model's components and trends. All others would be uninformed of any possible future changes or developments. And then they could not complain about every comment that is made.