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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (37144)7/25/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: jmanvegas  Respond to of 152472
 
Agree - it was deflation that caused the 1929 meltdown - not inflation.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (37144)7/25/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Jim Willie: A most thoughtful and valuable contribution IMO.

For one, I respect what you do as a short term trader, just know from experience that it is not an option for me myself. Tried from time to time and failed.

Your comments re this fall seem worth thinking about as the fall approaches IMO.

And re Green$pan, you have given a much more balanced and analytic critique than I have with my worry focused just on the danger and damage that another interest rate increase and then perhaps another would do when it is completely misreading action needed IMO, since as you do I see deflation on the horizon not inflation.

But you are very right, Alan Greenspan deserves credit for moving rapidly to ensure liquidity in Oct 1987 when needed and similar moves to deal with the Asian meltdown.

But sadly I think he helped cause that Asian meltdown with his last very very unfortunate rate increase prior to that meltdown.- although the currency traders did much to deepen the swings and meltdown too.

So agree with your more careful analysis and balance.

A mixed bag - good and bad. Just hope he sticks to talking this time.

Best.

Chaz



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (37144)7/25/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: JohnG  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
Jim Willie--Good post. Unlike many others here, I like Greenspan. I see his problem as one of promoting Asian and European growth and recovery (because the US will eventually go down with them if their economies aren't restored)as difficult as that is (The Japanese have exhibited that they just don't have the strength of leadership to make painful economic decisions; the European socialists also protected inefficient structures, jobs and companes for more than a decade while the US went through painful, hurtful downsizeings, closeings and division selloffs; the Russians won't even set up enabeling commercial law, banking, criminal law enorcement and private property ownership but just keep wanting money transfusions). As a result, he is left primarily with growling, hissing and threatening to 1) keep the US stock market aomewhat deflated 2) keep the demand push inflation in check in the United States. So there has evolved within our government this comic opera between Greenspan and congress. The recent small increase in interest rates was required just to maintain his credibility. He won't increase rates again in the near future unless loss of credibility forces him to do so.

Small telecoms--Satellites, if they provide cheap phone service, could give telecoms with coverage in most large metro areas the possibility of going 10% national. Look out US Cellular and Cellular One, your total coverage monopoly may be destroyed in one hell of a hurry if G* works.
Following this train of thought, consolidation of telecoms onto groups having nationwide metro coverage would be a precurser to filling in the remaining uncovered geography with G* or its sucessors. CDMA would be required. GSM consolidations would be OK as they can, according to Irwin, overlay a CDMA air interface on GSM. Time could be short here---say all come to realize that G* really works and works cheaply by March 2000. By that time there could be a frenzy to consolidate smaller telecoms and restructure Cellular One and US cellular.

Just some possibility thinking

JohnG
JohnG