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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valueman who wrote (6048)	7/25/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Jim Parkinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

I maintain that the sp's will pleasantly surprise us in the next month or two. I can't believe there is mass ignorance amongst that group. However, as my sig. other points out from time to time, I could be wrong.

To: Valueman who wrote (6048)	7/25/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

All eyes now turn to handset sales. Vman--poo! No dampers on this party! Seriously, I see your point. But, the focus should be on how sales of handsets go in relation to those available. Even if the numbers of handsets turned out remains low, any shortage should be viewed positively by the market, imo. And then, of course, that spin will have to be communicated effectively--as you say.

To: Valueman who wrote (6048)	7/25/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: BillRacer1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Sorry, but I would have to agree somewhat with Vman. There has been some "Irrational Exuberance" from posters as of late. There are simply way to many hurdles to overcome in the next 6 months. Too many questions are not yet answered: Pricing? Marketing? Phone availabilty? My Guesses: 7/30/99 -- $35 9/30/99 -- $38 1/31/00 -- $32 Don't get me wrong....I am way long on G*. But after seeing IRID's marketing flop, I am taking a somewhat cautious view. My hopes are that V-man's guesses are dead last and my guesses are 2nd to last. Bill......

To: Valueman who wrote (6048)	7/25/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Respond to of 29987

Valueman and all: Naturally no one can predict, except for fun, how the market will react to G's roll-out execution in the early months. It seems to me that mgmt has set very modest goals for the initial ramp up rate, maybe more modest than we long-time holders would like, both because of impatience to see an ROI and because of fear that G may miss a marketing window of opportunity. But, mgmt's numeric ramp up objectives for subscribers are pretty well known, and initial ones should be easily met. According to kitterykid's Post 6373 on Loral thread, 4Q99 sub count (average, I presume) is 12K. The "operating expense" breakeven is said to 220K subs to be reached by 2Q2000 (11:59PM June 30, I presume) and 1M subs to be reached by 12/31/00. But wait, BLS has said G* will report MoU, not subscribers, so there's plenty of room to fudge these numbers to redefine success if necessary. At 140 mou/sub/month, 4Q99 mou=5M, 2Q00 mou=50M, 4Q00 mou=336M; unless mgmt changes it's ways, results will be reported quarterly, about six weeks after close of quarter. The report for 4Q99 will be very interesting: will the headlines read "Globalstar reports 200M$ loss on 2M$ revenue" or "Globalstar service rollout proceeding according to plan"? Both could very well be true!! The key question for me is additional user terminal orders. To meet its plan, G* needs additional (to the presently ordered 300K units) UTs in the field starting early in the second half of 2000. Almost 700K additional UTs need to be in subscriber hands by the end of that year. When do they have to be ordered to meet that schedule? At the start of Y2K mgmt has said the production rate will be 40K/ month. What's the plan to ramp that up and how long will it take to execute? Well, I don't want sound like I'm suffering from post partum depression with this successful launch. BLS and company deserve high praise for executing (so far) a Zenit recovery plan that seemed very optimistic. Even with the State Dept delays early this year, they are almost exactly on the announced post-Zenit schedule. It's clear to me that the service rollout is going to proceed according to a script...a script more obscure and different than some of us might like...but a script nonetheless. I look for the rollouts to start in Argentina, S. Africa (if they can get some damn GSM phones!) and China (political sensitivities permitting). There may also be some activity in N. Africa and Southern and Eastern Europe. Like it or not, I think Airtouch will wait in N. America until Nov/Dec (as they've said). So we won't see much media here until then, IMHO. Congratulations to all!