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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stonehenge who wrote (6836)7/25/1999 6:56:00 PM
From: David Perfette  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9068
 
Anyone have an opinion about getting in ctxs at current price???

Stone,
My take on the situation with ctxs is that it is going to be either hit or miss.
Aside from the current market conditions weighing on the stock, if the stock
doesn't blow up, IMHO we will all do very well. To elaborate a little more. In
a nut shell the fear, whether valid or not, is that Mr. Softie will in the near
future effectively incorporate ctxs's products in it's OS. There is also the
persistent fear that y2k will do some harm to earnings, despite management's
insistence to the contrary. My understanding is: 1. Mr. Softie's RDP is
currently not a viable alternative to metaframe, nor will it be in the near
future. 2. According to the CC, Ctxs and Softie have a good relationship, and
management does not regard Softie as a threat. 3. Management continues to
assert that y2k will not effect them. 4. Ctxs is continuing to execute as the
earnings and cc shows.
So if you believe management, then this is IMHO a fine time to buy.
Note. I can not speak to whether management has provided accurate and
consistent guidance. Perhaps one of the long time followers can answer that.
Hope this helps.

-DP



To: Stonehenge who wrote (6836)7/26/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: Marconi  Respond to of 9068
 
Hello Stonehenge:
I am waiting for MACD (buy side) to cross over the short term stochastic below the zero line using Ask Research's site:
askresearch.com
A long URL. Most charts indicate downward movement with money flowing out of the stock. I view this as a normal correction. I will probably buy back 500 short shares every 3 or 4 points with today's target just below 48. I think there is a chance for the stock to rest in the low 40's, presuming the market in general does not have a downdraft with the yen carry trades (and US treasuries coming back from Japan instead of flowing there) or Red China threatening war with Taiwan. I think a plunging dollar could use a boost from a rate increase to moderate things. Mr. Greenspan is roiling into uncharted waters--fortunately he is cautious and smart and seems to hold a genuine interest in doing his job well.
Best regards,
m
PS I expect CTXS to hit 60 again yet this year. But for now a little correction is appropriate--the stock has had a peculiarly long linear run up beyond mid-50's. I believe they are in business now as compared to the dicey situation 2-3 years ago, and remain a going concern. I do not understand managements babble about the business. The numbers are reasonably healthy and they do not seem critically dependent on Microsoft's good will to survive.



To: Stonehenge who wrote (6836)7/26/1999 3:39:00 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Respond to of 9068
 
Hi Stonehenge,

Anyone have an opinion about getting in ctxs at current price???

Yes, the price is more likely to go to 40 than to 60 in the next 90 days. Keep in mind that Mr. Market is on vacation and he can't be bothered with a complicated story like the one CTXS presents. There are no buyers around for the NAZ in general and expecially for this issue. You would be well advised, IMHO, to wait until you see CTXS making a base. It could happen at this level, but it is more likely to be around 34-40.

I think you should be more concerned about timing than about price. The market is rolling over right now, you may not want to get in front of that kind of action.

HTH, Ray

askresearch.com