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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (32619)	7/26/1999 12:29:00 AM
From: Mehrdad Arya	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

The science of Econometrics would have a 'dialectial somersault' in trying to devise a formulae to fathom the chaos associated with short term investing. There is no proven formulae but luck and fraud. Short of these two variables I would be very interested to know how you can ascertain whether a stocks price will move 5,10,or 12% in any particular day. Sentiment is a major factor but how do you gauge this variable. Do you log on to techstocks.com or yahoo.com chat rooms associated with a particular company to measure the disposition or proclivity or do you listen to the Market Makers and Analysts. With a market capitalization of 9 Billion, Sales of 6 Billion, over 2 Billion in cash reserves, almost no debt, greater book value than CSCO or ASND(prior to its recent acquisition by LU), substantial capital gains with its investments in companies such as Juniper etc., with a household name still the envy of all its peers, COMS will prevail very well once it has ferreted out the heretics. Straddling the fence of opinion serves no one but chaos, and it is in these moments that the Vultures on Wall Street seek. The current course COMS has taken to capitalize on the new wave of Broadband and Wireless technology is very sound. Their vision is very well documented and the consensus in the capital markets seem to support COMS vision, but uncertainty as to how long this will take is what has dampened enthusiasm toward the stock. If you are going to buy COMS this is the time to buy. Your dreaming if you think the stock will fall below $23, that is, if it goes any lower. It is not the institutions that are selling but individual investors who are not used to being patient. I have too often sold when I could have made substantial capital gains only because I was a fool to heed to these Analyst. The best time to buy a company is when over 50% of the Analysts have a hold position on a company that has good fundamentals. It leaves plenty of room for upgrades and hence, substantial capital gains. IMHO

To: E_K_S who wrote (32619)	7/26/1999 12:45:00 AM
From: Elmo Gregory	Respond to of 45548

Hi Eric - After reading your post, my optimism for 3Com's future has cooled a bit. But there's big money moving in and out of 3Com and that suggests to me that some larger company might want to acquire it. Where there's money there's hope. But, as you point out, there's going to be less money and I guess it follows that there will be less hope--near term. If the stock goes to the teen's I'm going to be hurting big time. How about a little boost in price first, so I can unload my shares, and then let it go to the teens. With this stock, it can go up or down without much warning or hint of direction. Monday should be interesting: should I buy calls, sell my shares, or do nothing? That's what makes the game interesting. As to the price of the JAN2001 20 LEAPS with 9.75 ask and 9.375 bid, I think that a price of 8.50 to 8.75 would be more appropriate. However, the calculated theoretical price varies from 7.466 with 35% volatility to 9.635 with 60% volatility. Paying a higher price wouldn't make much difference if there was some confidence in the future of 3Com. I keep thinking that there's a parallel story between 3Com and Novell. I know that I gave up on Novell just before it jumped from around 12 to 24 in a few short weeks. Even though I was in Novell at around 7.375 and got out at 12.625, I felt that I left a lot on the table. Some call it greed. The loss of good employees is not a good sign. It is one more indicator that 3Com is not viewed, by some, as having much of a future. But the stock options that were offered to the engineers by the other company were probably more tempting than their loyalty to 3Com. How about the possibility or probability that another buyout rumor will occur within the next 17 months. It's almost a sure thing. And we know that a good rumor is good for several points movement in the stock. One might not make a killing with options but there's a good chance that it will be worthwhile. Looks like the last time 3Com was in the teens was in 1994. Can things be so bad for the company that the stock will see '94 prices again? Regards, Elmo