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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7173)	7/25/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: KurtSS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, In a previous post LIG said: Here is my prediction. Bob will not call a sell signal until after the market has declined at least 15%, if at all (let's go with the S&P). I guess this is LIG's worst case scenario, relative to Bob's bear market predictive abilities. If Bob doesn't call the bear until the S&P has declined 15%, which means I will then be out or short the market, then Bob will likely save me approximately an additional 5-35% of my money versus Buy & Hope. This assumes he calls the subsequent re-entry point accurately. So, let's say my 5-35% hypothetical savings drops to 5%-25% versus Buy & Hope. I would still take this over weathering the full force of a severe bear market. Of course, based on Bob's track record, I think Bob will do much better than this worse case scenario. BTW, I kind of liked Bob's tie on NBR. Best, KurtSS

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7173)	7/25/1999 10:54:00 PM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, It's not fair to copy part of a sentence and argue against something I never said. The full sentence quote is . Bob will not call a sell signal until after the market has declined at least 15%, if at all (let's go with the S&P) Bob will not risk giving a premature sell signal and will instead wait till the market already tanked before "predicting" the bear market. This is a testable prediction (in scientific terms). After all, if a prediction model has any predictive validity, it must accurately predict something. So let's see what happens. So, as I posted previously, If, based on his timing model, Bob predicts one [a bear market] before it occurs (and issues a sell signal), I will have been proven wrong. If he issues a sell signal after it occurs (or never) I will have been proven correct.