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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7857)	7/26/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78485

Mike for your consideration. My take on cse is that there is a 50/40/10 probability of merger at 55, merger at renegotiated level(say 45) and no merger with stock falling to 30. If one were to sell 3 csemh(jan 40 puts) at 3.5 as alternative to buying 100 shares at 46.5 the expected values would be as follows: Stock .58.5+.4-1.5+.1-16.5=2 Puts .510.5+.410.5+.1-19.5=7.5 You can put in your own probabilities and determine your own risk characteristics as to leverage but selling puts is an excellent alternative strategy. Also 3 puts only require 1650 cash.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7857)	7/26/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78485

Sold my WDC today. Actually, I feel worse about once saying to you in response to your question, that I thought Western Digital was worth about $50/sh. as I do in losing money on the stock. The money has been gone for a while, but I'm haunted by my dumb response. I was only off by a factor of one decimal point - yikes. If the company doesn't go bankrupt, it might recover next year-- if they can get costs down, as all the 'free' computers inundate the consumer. But I can use my loss to offset some gains, so I'll sell now. I think where I made one of my mistakes on this stock was to fall for the received wisdom, that storage is great, the more the better, and we're all going to have to upgrade as we go to video, wide bandwidth, etc. Well, it seems to me now, that storage is not a problem, that even my puny computer has enough, and if I or anybody, does have to upgrade, large cap. drives are everywhere and inexpensive. Paul