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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (25700)	7/26/1999 1:55:00 AM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Could be Don. That would certainly be the pattern it has followed for the last year or so. The problem I see is that it has become a much more closely followed stock in the last couple of months so its not clear to me that the pattern will remain true. You can make a case for it being fairly valued here if you look past this next flat to slight growth qtr. If the street starts looking at some of its software properties it may even value it somewhat higher. I'm not sure its a rewarding short or long right now. It's tough for me to come up with a decent risk/reward scenario. Like you I'm looking for a market pull back. If that becomes a significant influence on Apple I'd probably be more likely to buy on a significant dip to the the 40's. Likewise any news that drives it down like the production problem rumors a month or so ago. Otherwise I think I'll just watch it for a while. Rich

To: Don Green who wrote (25700)	7/26/1999 5:30:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

only 41 days till rambus Christmas

To: Don Green who wrote (25700)	7/26/1999 6:03:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

just finished reading a multex report on rmbs dated last friday. also reread the msdw upgrade press release. a few obscure facts... rmbs lowest pe was 127 rmbs highest pe was 963.9 multex reports consensus earnings for 1999 as $0.28. for 2000 as $0.95. msdw says for 2001...."Although we haven't released an official estimate for fiscal 2001, we believe they have the potential to at least triple over the expected results in fiscal 2000,"....that would be at least $2.85. using current share price of $99, i calculate rmbs pe as: present.. 320 2000..... 104 2001..... 35 these figures assume only a 35% "pc" market penetration...quote... Edelstone said. "We expect Rambus DRAMs (computer memory chips) to be used in 35 percent of all PCs by the end of next year." as i explained yesterday, the end of next calendar year is 1/2 way into rmbs' fiscal year 2001. intel's roadmap shows rmbs in 100% of pc's by late calendar year 2001. that sets up another earnings triple or $8.55 in 2002. what kind of pe do you give a company that triples earnings 3 years in a row? assuming intel is right and earnings triple again in 2002 i calculate share price... pe 200 = $1710. pe 150 = $1282. pe 127 = $1085. this is large...huge! edelstone only talked about pc's. he never mentioned any other markets!!! unclewest this writer may have a position in the aforementioned security.<gg> all of this of course is jmho.