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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (137649)	7/26/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Gabriel, thanks so much for the IDC/Dataquest info..RE: 4Q this year... I, like many, have had concerns about a 4Q slowdown for Dell this year...apparently, Y2K is not going to effect 3Q (much at all), and any significant impact would be felt in 4Q.. Here's where (long-term holders) should have some comfort. The y-o-y comp (at least on the revenue line) are going to be favorable for Dell in 4Q. If you recall, last 4Q was the quarter Dell "only" grew revenues 38%...making it the 1st quarter in which Dell has grown y-o-y at far less than 50%...So, ironically, Dell's "bad" (I use the term loosely) quarter last 4Q may help Dell this 4Q....I did a quick calculation this weekend (don't have it in front of me) but I believe that (assuming Dell grows revs at around 10% this next quarter)...Dell would only to grow revs at around 5% sequentially in the 4th quarter to keep revenue growth at 40%y-o-y (or above).... As you know, Dell normally grows revenues at/or above 10% sequentially in 4Qs. So Dell could take a Y2K hit (on the revenue line), and STILL grow revs at near 40% or above in 4Q... As you may know, Dell is insisting that they do not expect a "different" 4Q this year (due to Y2K), because they expect consumer, small business, and gvt. purchasing to make up for any (large corporate) lockdowns.... NOW... The earnings line is going to be a bit tricky. Dell's margins expanded quite nicely in 4Q last year...and the extent of which will be hard to duplicate.....so it appears it will be tough for Dell to grow y-o-y earnings much better than 30-35% range in 4Q this year... NOW... If you would have told me, at the beginning of the year, that the extent of Y2K trouble for Dell would be a 4Q in which earnings would grow at around 40%, and a 1 quarter earnings growth of 30-35%, I would have been very happy indeed... I would encourage all those reading to do their own number crunching on this issue, and to remember a lot can change between now and then, but, to date, I feel pretty comfortable about Dell getting thru the period relatively unscathed...hopefully, that will also be reflected in the stock price during the period...

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (137649)	7/26/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: MadManMike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Dell closes in on Compaq Dell challenges Compaq's U.S. dominance in the second quarter July 26, 1999: 11:10 a.m. ET NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Dell Computer closed the gap on Compaq during the second quarter in a climate of increased demand for personal computers, data released Monday indicated. Strong performance from its Presario line of personal computers helped Compaq remain on top of the industry with a 14.6 percent share of the market, according to a study by International Data Corp., a technology research firm. Coming in second worldwide was Dell, with 10.8 percent, followed by IBM with 9.2 percent), Hewlett Packard at 6.6 percent, and NEC with 5.3 percent. In the United States, however, Compaq (CPQ), with 16.6 percent of the market, finished with a hair's- breadth lead over Dell (DELL), with 16.3 percent. Rounding out the top 5 computer makers in the United States were IBM (IBM) at 8 percent, Gateway (GTW) at 7.8 percent, and Hewlett-Packard (HWP) at 7.8 percent. Overall, worldwide PC unit sales grew 27 percent during the second quarter of 1999, and worldwide shipments stood at 25.6 million. The United States market was the most robust, with volume growth expanding 35.3 percent to 10.8 million units for the quarter. "The potent combination of the super low-cost segment with the subsidized or 'nearly free' PC model, rebates, and Internet service provider bundling catalyzed market expansion," said Christine Arrington, manager of U.S. PC Tracking at IDC. As computer profits have been put under pressure, PC firms have tried to come up with innovative ways to boost revenue. One of these has been the "free" PC movement, whereby consumers sign up for a set period of Internet access, usually three years, in exchange for a free computer, with the access effectively subsidizing the cost of the computer. Additionally, companies like Gateway and Dell plan to offer their own branded ISP service with their computers.