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CDMA Cellular Phone Technology Surges in Asia, N. America
July 26, 1999 (TOKYO) -- The code division multiple access (CDMA) standard for digital wireless phones is continuing to make rapid inroads across the globe, and especially in Asia.
Discussions about the acceptance of CDMA for the next-generation IMT-2000 mobile communications handset standard were plagued by a protracted patent dispute and an array of standardization issues. The problems are now resolved, and the CDMA format is making brisk progress.
In addition to being an approved base technology for IMT-2000 services, CDMA is gaining popularity in many countries and in a growing range of applications. China looks to be the next major region for large-scale adoption of the technology. And, in terms of practical applications, there are opportunities for CDMA in the convergence of Internet services with mobile communications. Moreover, CDMA will be widely welcomed as a means of implementing wireless local loop (WLL) systems.
This article outlines the latest developments in CDMA technology, as revealed at the recent CDMA World Congress.
Subscriber Numbers Rising 300 Percent Every Year
CDMA wireless technology is rapidly gathering momentum in mobile telephony and other applications.
The Fourth Annual CDMA World Congress, held in Hong Kong in mid-June, gave observers the distinct impression that CDMA will come into its own in the new millennium.
The number of subscribers to CDMA cellular phone networks is growing in North America, Japan and other parts of Asia. And there are clear signs that countries like China and Australia are on the verge of launching CDMA services too.
CDMA subscriber growth across the globe has reached 300 percent annually (Figure 1). Asian nations, which were early advocates of CDMA services, account for the majority of subscribers.
Hong Kong, which launched the world's first commercial CDMA system, was subsequently joined by Korea, Japan and other countries that are advanced in deploying mobile communications systems. As of March 1999, the Asian region accounted for more than 60 percent of worldwide subscribers.
Japan is a booming mobile market. Services are provided jointly by the DDI-Cellular Group and IDO Corp. In mid-June, the DDI-Cellular Group alone had signed up 1 million subscribers, having gotten its services underway slightly ahead of IDO. The data were provided by Hiroshi Sakai, a DDI director and general manager of the Mobile Communications Engineering Division. Sakai presented a paper at the CDMA World Congress.
North America had lagged behind other geographic regions in implementing commercial CDMA services. But it痴 now the fastest growing market. In 1998, it recorded an annual subscriber growth rate of 400 percent.
China Poised as the Next Growth Market
The CDMA camp is betting on China as the next major growth market. In his address to the Congress, Wang Jianzhou, executive vice president of China United Telecommunications Corp. (UniCom), explained future plans for building a CDMA network in China.
Wang said that China will have built a sufficient infrastructure by the end of 1999 to accommodate 2.6 million subscribers in major cities along the eastern coast and in the interior part of the country. By the end of 2000, the CDMA network will be capable of serving 10 million subscribers.
China is committed to ongoing capital investments to expand system capacity by 10 million annually. Capacity will reach 40 million in 2003. And at that time the number of subscribers is expected to reach 28 million. This projected demand in China is roughly equivalent to today痴 number of CDMA worldwide subscribers.
China UniCom has based its cell phone systems on the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) standard, deployed widely across Europe and other countries. However, the company will likely migrate to CDMA technology. The reason, Wang said, is primarily "the ease of shifting to a next-generation mobile communications system that will enable high-speed transmissions."
The Convergence of Wireless Communications and the Net
The makers promoting CDMA technology are looking with great expectations at China and other nations that promise brisk demand for cellular phone services. However, data communications will be the driving force of the CDMA market in countries like Japan and Korea, where cell phones are already in widespread use.
Many of the speakers at the CDMA World Congress predicted that 1999 is likely to be the start of a meteoric rise in mobile data services.
Of the various possibilities for data applications over CDMA networks, vendors will likely concentrate on cellular devices equipped with special browser software for accessing information on the Internet.
Peter Richardson, an analyst with Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group Inc., anticipates that handsets with a built-in browser will gain a 40-percent share of the entire market over the next five years. Just two types of phones, browser-enabled and voice-only, will dominate the market, Richardson said.
Japan has taken the initiative in the wireless Internet arena. Other countries will undoubtedly follow suit and set up services similar to the EZweb and EZaccess services that DDI Cellular and IDO began, when they rolled out their nationwide cdmaOne networks.
Wireless Local Loop Offers New Territory
Another potential field of application for CDMA is wireless local loop (WLL). The advantage of WLL, as an alternative to landline telephone networks, is that a phone system can be constructed in less time and much more economically than laying copper wire and cabling.
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. and Hyundai Electronics Industries Co., Ltd. of Korea demonstrated WLL phones at the exhibition accompanying the CDMA World Congress. Their WLL products have been successfully deployed in Russia and South America. Those are regions with low rates of telephone penetration and they need to build up their telecom networks soon.
Samsung Electronics gave a briefing on its broadband WLL system, which enables data rates of up to 128kbps. The system is designed for the urban market where data communications are in common use. Hanaro Telecom Inc., a regional carrier in Korea, plans to deploy Samsung's WLL system this year.
Figure 1: CDMA cellular phone services continue to enjoy rapid expansion
CDMA is growing at an average rate of 300 percent annually worldwide. Demand is greatest in Asia, but North America is growing the fastest, with an annual growth rate topping 400 percent. In Japan, subscriber numbers reached 1 million in just 10 months of service. (Source: CDMA Developers Group)
(Takahiro Kikuchi, Staff Editor, Nikkei Electronics)
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