To: Sam who wrote (23575 ) 7/26/1999 10:32:00 AM From: Natedog Respond to of 26850
Winspear most active conference Winspear Resources Ltd WSP Shares issued 39,238,388 Jul 23 close $3.30 Mon 26 Jul 99 Week ended July 23rd by Stockwatch business reporter Winspear was reviewed in the last issue of Forum Watch, continuing to hold its dominant position among Canada Stockwatch's most active conferences. A Stockwatch article on July 19 examined the latest bulk sample results in the context of earlier results from Snap Lake and results obtained by other diamond exploration companies in the Northwest Territories. The article also sketched some of the analysis that will be undertaken over the coming months and possibilities regarding future work on the property. The full text of the article will be made available in the Forum Watch conference. As might be expected, discussion early in the week centred on the latest bulk sample results. After reconsidering the results, DiamondWillie suggested that perhaps they were not as bad as he had earlier thought. WillP wrote: "I'm now pretty confident this puppy will deliver about $225 to $245 (U.S.) per tonne, before dilution in actual production...based on current prices. Onward and upward." Positively Charged, who had guessed a value of more than 1,000 per tonne for the bulk sample was quick to leave that behind: "I guess we will just have to settle for the best valuations ever from the NWT diamond producing kimberlite field! I know that most of us were looking for block buster results based on our genuinely optimistic nature...I think that before the end of the summer month we will see nine bucks on the Spear." Pendragon posed the question that was undoubtedly stirring in the minds of most Winspear followers: "Well, the results are good fundamentally, but how is the market going to react?" He went on to suggest there would be a major sell off, possibly down to $3. RealityCheck took a swipe at some posters who had been touting much higher bulk sample values, adding: "Most people seem to be putting a brave face on these latest results...I really have to wonder how people who were predicting in excess of $300 per tonne rock value (in some cases far in excess) cannot be disappointed." Douglas congratulated RealityCheck on his bulk sample guess of $193, going on to note: "Next nearest was WillP at $307 closely followed by Jspec and Cid. Somehow PC can manage a drop from his pick of $1,093 without being suicidal; what fortitude!" Discussion turned for a time to expectations, with WillP challenging some of RealityCheck's comments: "'Contests' are one thing, as are hopes and dreams. Expectations and demands are quite the opposite...I said...over and over...expect $160, and take the additional bit as a pleasant surprise. Without a doubt, I would like to be 'more pleasantly surprised'...but keeping your fantasies separate from your expectations is an important thing...Frankly, $300 was not an unrealistic expectation." RealityCheck pointed to some of the arguments that had been offered in support of the earlier guesses, suggesting that they reflected the expectations of those posters. DiamondWillie leaned toward the belief that expectations for the bulk sample had been disappointed: "...to me the major impact of the latest NR is that the numbers are lower, much lower, than many people expected, and expectancy is the name of the game." Underpinning the exchanges seems to be the question of whether many of the earlier bulk sample estimates were actually put forward as serious expectations or hopes bordering on
fantasy. On a related subject, discussion turned briefly to the suggestion that European investors might be satisfied with the results, raising the possibility of some institutional support. Pendragon and RealityCheck raised some concerns about the reappearance of that rumour before the discussion turned to new valuations for Winspear and possible takeover scenarios. Even before trading opened on Monday it was clear that the mood of the conference participants had slipped from the ebullience that had persisted through the results of the first 3,000-tonne sample. There was some early optimism at the open, with Positively Charged proclaiming: "Watch for the recoil to new highs within the next 5 trading days. Notice the absence of committed sellers and the firmness of the bids from what appears to be size buyers! Since the weak sisters are about out of the stock look for a nice close on the Spear!" Corry had strong doubts about new highs and any quick takeover attempt: "As I said earlier, large corporations do not become large by making kneejerk billion dollar acquisitions, and any way that you want to paint this find, as great as it is, there are still questions to be answered about it. Until that is done, we can all sit on our hands and wait." Nonetheless, speculation regarding possible suitors took up much of the discussion for the remainder of the week, with quite an imaginative list of candidates being put forward. There were also several suggestions that Winspear had moved from the realm of a speculative play to some more solid sphere. As the share price continued to decline, however, the general tone of the discussion became ever more sombre. Some dark humour was provided by DiamondWillie, playing the role of Spinmeister at the end of the week: "Values came in at one-half of what some people were expecting, yet the stock only went down 20 per cent this week! Terrific!" Winspear finished the week at $3.30. (c) Copyright 1999 Canjex Publishing Ltd. canada-stockwatch.com