To: Paisano who wrote (32971 ) 8/2/1999 2:41:00 AM From: johngmack Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 44908
Paisano <<This is news today from Nettaxi. They have entered into a partnership with MyNetMedia.com for MP3 download capability for their membership. I'm wondering if this potentially dampens the potential with TSIG, or if TSIG plays any role with MyNetMedia.com involving the access to music.>> <<<<Any thoughts on how this impacts TSIG?>>> This was a great question. I'll share some thoughts with the thread, and maybe Jeff can also comment from his experience. Also, I apologize upfront for any buzzwords, and will attempt to keep it simple. First of all, MP3 technology is going to impact the entire internet CD and DVD-ROM music distribution industry, as well as traditional retailers. It will impact how we buy as consumers, impact how the record companies, wholesalers and companies like TSIG market and sell, and it will impact the percentage of the profit that the artists receive. Now this can be either good or bad for TSIG, depending on how the company adjusts to the new paradigm. The good news for TSIG, at least for the next 9-12 months, is that the company has time to integrate the "MP3 download capability" into their distribution strategy. Just in case there are any doubters, what I'm about to discuss in the next few paragraphs is deliverable now and can be purchased through multiple sources. All of us have a computer. My guess is that most of you receive catalogues from companies with names like "PC/MAC Warehouse, order through the internet, or drive on down to your local CompUSA. Now you know where and how to acquire. Please note that bandwidth is also a key component of this paradigm shift. Forget 56K modems. Representatives marketing T1 and DSL lines, cable modems and satellite broadcasting are about to converge at your front door. What are they selling. A service that not too long ago was expensive and difficult to find. Now it's about to become a commodity. SPEED-SPEED-SPEED. Forget the buzzwords, just remember they mean SPEED! Now take a peek at those catalogues, turn the newspaper pages, surf the net, or walk the aisles. PC's and Mac's running at 400 to 600 mhz. More SPEED-SPEED-SPEED. And CHEAP! But wait. Not yet ready to turn in your trusty old (well only 2 years old) 150 mhz PC that cost $2,000. We can dream about it, but it's very irritating seeing something three times as fast that sells for less money. Well, feel good about it, because that is one of the key reasons that MP3 will have a relatively slow start, giving TSIG time to plan for it. What if you're lucky and just purchased one of these new speedy PC's. All new PC's come with built-in CD-ROM drives, and some even come installed with something called CD-R or CD-RW drives. For the purpose of this discussion, please note that either the CD-R or CD-RW can play all existing CD-ROM's ....AND.... record on blank CD's. Just in case the PC came without a recordable CD drive, it can be purchased separately for $2-300 each. OK, now we only need one more tool. Before I get to that, let's find out something about MP3. MP3 is a CODEC (compressor/decompresser). CODECs are needed to compress audio and video into a smaller media space and decompress when they are being played. MP3 is an audio CODEC. The big deal is that it compresses audio into about 1/10th the size of previous technologies. The other big deal is it plays the audio back in near CD quality. Hopefully most of you are seeing where this is going, but let's discuss the last tool- software to play MP3 audio files. The big players . . . Apple Quicktime 4, Real Player and Microsoft something. A quick true story. Apple has always given away Quicktime for free. It runs on both the Macintosh and Windows platforms and can be downloaded via the internet. Microsoft asked Apple to stop distributing Quicktime so that Microsoft's product could become the defacto standard. Apple declined. Well, can you imagine that Microsoft has a product on which they could earn income, but Apple's competitive product was available for free? Don't tell the folks at Netscape. Back to MP3. The software necessary to play MP3 audio is available now at minimal cost. Let's put it all together. 1. Cheap, fast bandwidth is on our doorsteps. 2. Cheap, fast PC's are available for purchase. 3. Cheap, fast CD writers are available for purchase. 4. Cheap, fast, efficient software is available for purchase. OK everybody, last one to get on the internet is Porky Pig! WHHHHOOOOAAAA! Not so fast. One more element to go. Not every element is lined up on the starting line. Who's the laggard? We are...... We're not so fast. The companies are trying to be, but we are not. 1. A majority of consumers with internet access do not own the required technology to capture music on CD's. 2. Downloading music files to copy onto CD's is not quite as easy as recording the next episode of ER in the VCR. Watch how the promotion of this service makes it sound easy. 3. If you take the time to visit the MyNetMedia.com site it will tell you the download service is not available until the 4th quarter. The above all relates to the present. IMHO it will take a minimum of 9-12 months for this new distribution process to become established, leaving time for TSIG to successfully launch their announced programs. The rest of this post addresses (IMO) the longer term impact of downloading product directly to the consumer. The service will be heavily promoted, particuarly in the areas of customized CD's and instant gratification. This will support the existing pricing structure for the record companies and distributors, but only for the near term. Unless they can find a way to stay in the loop, companies like amazon.com, CD-NOW and TSIG will need to find other sources of revenue. The video rental industry is a great case study for the eventual outcome. Quality streaming video is also a big part of this new technology. The artists are already beginning to discover the opportunity to direct market through the internet their music, allowing them a larger percentage of the profits. And what about Mr. and Ms. America and little Billy and Susie? They are already acquiring the necessary technology. Let me end this with a recent Bill Gates quote when asked about the internet: "I believe the internet is overestimated for the next 2 years and underestimated for the next ten years". GO GO GO TSIG! But please make sure you have a technology officer in place who can watch your back. I hope the above was consistent with your question. John