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To: Jeff Hayden who wrote (2712)	7/26/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: lml	Respond to of 4298

However, by that time I think the exclusive ISP status of Excite@home will probably be over. Will AOL survive during the period of Excite@homes exclusivity (3 yrs or so)? How fast will their present subscribers leave to get IP over cable? Jeff: 3 years is a long time in the "Internet" years. I agree with you that non-exclusive access will ultimately arrive on the cable platform. In that respect, while ATHM will no longer maintain a monopoly on the particular MSO's system, but it will have the inside track having been the first. In this type of market, the term "first come, first served" truly has meaning. This is why the competition between DSL & the cable modem platform exists today in the residential arena. Big dollars are at stake going forward as e-commerce becomes a significant portion of our economy. In the scenario you describe, ATHM will be the first. This is significant & an obvious threat to AOL, regardless of AOL late arrival to the cable platform party. Keep in mind that these are mega-dollars we are dealing with. As far as pricing, expect pricing to drop a bit. Sure, first-timers will opt initially for dial-up. But expect that MSO to "lure" the TV guy with that "freebie" offer like "6 months internet access free." Once a subscriber is hooked on broadband, he won't go back. So, IMHO, the stepped-up market, with respect to speed you speak of, will contract going forward as broadband becomes more & more important to the growth in e-commerce revenues. Expect e-commerce to subsidize the cost of broadband cable into the home in the near future. JMO.