To: Smilodon who wrote (8424 ) 7/26/1999 2:53:00 PM From: cm Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11417
<OT> Actually, Archer, I Take Your Point... Claugus has made some good calls--I would gather--and this one--in the short-term at least--seems to be one of them. I'm speaking as someone who never trades, but just does his research and rides. I've been caught on one slow pony over the years, one dead pony, and four rather remarkable thoroughbreds. I've been lucky, yes. God, yes. I've had help from friends, yes. But, I never park my funds unless I have done lots of research. (Take it back, I didn't research the dead pony. I followed a stock letter to ruin. That was the last time I let somebody do my stock picking for me... without my own DD.) You see, that's the thing about Claugus and crew and the Barron's article which was so... well... weird. He didn't/doesn't get the business model. He misstated the case about content providers, ignoring the prominent ones that have already signed on. Indeed, the PGE report says that WAVX has signed up Electronic Arts--which is pretty impressive. In Claugus' defense--which he certainly doesn't need from some Web nobody like me--WAVX presents a daunting face to the public. It isn't easy to grasp the business model. Your average traders don't read George Gilder. Nor do they read The Economist, for that matter. And when you talk chips with folks, they're hoping there's some queso or salsa around. Now, that said, I would hardly recommend a stock just because it's "misunderstood." In fact, one could easily make a case--again, short-term--that the misunderstood category is ripe for the shorters' pickings. But, at some point in my research and readings, the light went on. (No, not the EXIT sign, Archer or Dude.) Here's part of that light. We know that OEMs have an economic incentive for incorporating this chip: the much-vaunted "laser-thin margins" and no ongoing revenues. But, I think there's even more to that story. Were I a Gateway or Hewlett Packard or Compaq, I'd be doing as Dude is, reading up on all these software "micropayment" solutions that can be downloaded at this site or that and thinking to myself, "Okay, customers are using my platform to do stuff that I could, in fact, be profiting from." So, rather than being concerned about this teeny-bucks or kids-with-cash site or some other downloadable Java security applet, I actually see this as something that would encourage an OEM to get something on that hardware that enables the OEM profit from folks buying cool digital content or downloading apps. But, this is so much wasted text, I fear. The joy, I gather, of being a shorter (or short-term trader, for that matter) is that you can trade on technicals or articles and are completely absolved from in-depth research. Hey, that works, too. It makes money. Best Regards and Smiling, c m