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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (27371)	7/26/1999 5:32:00 PM
From: Tom Chwojko-Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Apologies in advance, johnd. I think I have a new pet peeve to add to my list: 1. loose vs. lose loose is not tight lose is not win This mix-up seems to have become the most annoying and prevalent misspelling on the internet right now. 2. "I could care less." vs. "I couldn't care less." If something is important to you then you could care much less. If something is meaningless to you then it is not possible to care less than nothing. Message boards seem to bring out the worst in everyone's grammar and/or spelling. EOR (end of rant)

To: johnd who wrote (27371)	7/26/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 74651

I don't think that DOW will go down to 8k, but a test of 10k is very likely. As far as Nasdaq goes, it's too high anyway. So a low of 2400 should provide some decent support and should be a good buying opportunity. As far as nuts are concerned, issues like AOL, YHOO! are good quality companies. But when the stock prices are taken into account, all of them are no more than POSs. Take into account of AOL, which I have been negative since it hit 130s about 5 months ago, I believe that the fair value of this issue is no more than 80. AM glad that I sold out my last batch of momo play in the 120s. Issue is seriously overvalued as you can see momo players and institional holders dump the POS even when it reports decent earnings in recent quarters. Just guess that a $0.13 quarterly earning is no longer able to justify a stock price at 100. More trouble (and margin call) at YHOO! and AMZN, as issues breaking 200 DVA and look to head further lower. I am planning to reenter MSFT at 85. ACtually I will buy 30% at 85 and buy another 30% at 80. If it drops to 75, I will buy the rest. The only issue that I keep buying is QCOM. Awesome baby! good luck, larry!

To: johnd who wrote (27371)	7/26/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

IMHO, I went to 60% cash on Options expiration Friday and have sidestepped a great deal of the down draft of last week and this Monday. I should have shorted the SPX and QQQ but was asleep at the market wheel but with good reason. I expect that we will see a bottoming out this week then some recovery. The key as always is will we bounce off support. If we don't then we go lower. During Mid July on into August I had estimated that we would see maybe two to three cycles of testing and probably breaking old highs to be followed by testing the lows. At this point we are at a bottom and about to begin the second cycle. I believe we will rally but it will be hard to set new highs for the rest of the year. We probably will not see much upside in the third cycle if at all. If Germany and the Europeans are in the process of raising rates then it is easier for our Fed to do the same or so people believe. It is still my position that the long bond will yield under 5.50% by the end of this year. Money flow into equities two weeks ago was 3.1 Billion. Last week it was only 96 Million thus the pull back can be accounted for in large part. Things to think about and uncertainties that will drive the market lower in late summer or the fall. GPS rollover in mid-August, Potential date problems in September , 9999 End of file, 1 Oct 99 Federal gov. switches to FY2000 and the realization late in the year that Korea, Japan and Asia in general are not up to speed for Y2K. And of course, there is always something that comes out of left field and sends people running for the hills. The market just doesn't like surprises. This is now a market that requires greater expertise, people that are new to the investing game should exercise extreme caution...shorting, hedging, selective use of option strategies and going after special situations that provide a high probability of locking in modest profits of say 10-20% over the next four to six months are key. I could be wrong, but this has been my best year in the market. IMHO