Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (2792)	7/26/1999 6:41:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10027

Herschel - I call 'em as I see them. Joseph Silent asked for my opinion as to where NITE stands - I answered honestly, and I stand by my opinion. As to emotionalism - I guess it depends on the facts of the case. As I told the folks over on the MSFT thread - as MSFT was hitting 99+, that it is going to sell off - the optimists thought I was a naysayer (BTW, I am a MSFT long, and have been for a number of years - and will continue to be; I'm very bullish on MSFT longterm, but short-term...). If you are right about the stock going down, and you voice that, is it "emotionalism"? Is it over-reaction? Depends on if the situation warrants it. IMO, it does warrant it. Part of being a trader, is being in touch w/ the market sentiment. If I sound a dismal note, it is because I sense the mood, and that helps me establish direction. What you do, when it comes to execution of an order, is to take market sentiment into account. Sometimes the bears (or bulls) are wrong - go contrary. Sometimes they are right (go momentum). It is a misconception to think that a good trader, is a trader who has no emotion - rather, it is a trader who takes EMOTION INTO ACCOUNT. I stand by every one of those statements you quoted. As an example: "A technical bounce from an oversold position, will only be fodder for more shorting (sucker rally)." - Oh really? Oh really. Because I will act on it - as I have every time (f.ex. when it popped to 56, and when it goes up in the morning, I short) - I will continue to do so UNTIL THE MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I don't see them change anytime soon. "The only way for NITE to climb and hold gains, is if it has some dramatic PR come out (I don't see it)" - How do you know? Because the strongest possible PR (spectacular earnings) failed to move it, as well as all kinds of good news (London, options, hirings etc.), have failed to move it in this market environment. And I find it hard to imagine what kind of news would move it - candidates, for such a scenario would be: ECNs are being abolished (nope), shares are being locked up again (nope), etc. OK - if f.ex. ML is buying NITE, that would qualify, but the odds seem slim. <<Especially when we start seeing tribal chants that the sky is falling>> I don't know - what qualifies as the sky falling? NITE is now 2-3 points away from the 40-42 "sky falling" scenario I said is a danger: "perhaps low 40s - like 40-42. May be a couple of weeks before there is any move up." <Perhaps>, <couple of weeks before there is any move up> Does this sound unduly panicky? When it is now 2-3 points away form that <Perhaps>? And that comment was made when NITE WAS STILL AT above 46!!!!!!!! Important detail - I wasn't crying wolf, while the stock was at a bottom - I correctly outlined a trend (and subsequent action bore out my judgement), with a target of perhaps 40-42 near term. <<But anyhow, I'm not trying to start a dispute as you had with Mr. Norris.>> No problem at all. Be my guest and dispute all you like - I am not a shrinking violet, and I'll let you know that in no time at all. All I ask, is that you get your facts, quotes, etc. right. Makes it hard to discuss (and discussion is valuable) when f.ex. I answer your question (like about 'how do I know it is shorting'), and you come back and say: "Morgan, you still haven't explained your claim that a lot of NITE's trades today consisted of shorting (which I only hope for in the long term it's a huge plus) by looking at your Level II screen?" I did answer your original post 2777 with my post 2779 8 minutes later. So, how come you come back over an hour later, and say I did not answer your question? You need to listen as well as talk. Otherwise, I'm ready to discuss any concerns you may have - I'll do so with great detail - and I ask that you in return be very meticulous in your arguments. Morgan