To: cfoe who wrote (239 ) 7/26/1999 8:03:00 PM From: Sawtooth Respond to of 13582
An interesting and valid post, cfoent. My thoughts: <<It is very difficult to value a gorilla (or gorilla in development). They almost always look overvalued....Ever since the ERICY settlement, Q has increasingly exhibited signs of being this type of company.>> And the vast majority of early holders take their double, triple or five bagger and walk away with a gleam in their eye. And who can complain about a five bagger? They take a nice profit but miss out on a potential fortune. We've probably all seen it happen; I have. <<It is very difficult for the marketplace to put a valuation on what is doesn't know it doesn't know. I am confident that there are applications, products, alliances, etc. in Q's future that I cannot anticipate. And I would think that most investors and probably all but a handful of analysts are no more informed or prescient than I am.................I cannot put a specific value on Q; therefore, I cannot say now whether it is over- or under-valued. I can only look at what has been accomplished (much) and the opportunity ahead (very large, probably huge).....Any feedback will be appreciated>> While certainly not the *most informed* investor in Qcom, and perhaps the least, over time I've listened and watched enough to be able to discern sometimes subtle but often powerful changes and movements in the technological basis of the world and how people communicate, do business, and live. Like the ocean that on the surface appears to be calm or with all of the waves moving in the same direction. Yet below the surface are massive, strong currents that are moving in different directions; sweeping the water and what is in the water to distant places. But not too clearly seen or understood by those watching the surface. We see the slow but steady shift to CDMA across the globe. We see Ericsson truly, apparently, begin to embrace CDMA. We see the Q positioning into the handheld market, one of the most potentially rich of the new markets, with PDQ. We see the WirelessKnowledge alliance with Msft and more integrating partners being added. We see the ramp up of the GlobalStar system. We strongly feel that AT&T will need to come on board or witness the implosion of their business. We see sea changes occurring that can lead to the conclusion that Qcom can be an significant participant, maybe the most significant participant and beneficiary of the subtle shifts and changes we know are occurring all around us. And all of these developments, all of these fertile fields to be mined, are interlaced and cross leverageable. So, how does one value "the (potentially) most significant participant and beneficiary of the subtle shifts and changes we know are occurring all around us"? Good question but, if I'm true in my assumptions and vision, it's too early to be pondering over or under valuation at this point for Qcom. Then, again, I might be all wrong (but I agree with your summary). ; ) Best.