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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (4292)	7/27/1999
From: Doug Fowler	Respond to of 7772

I said they sounded nervous, and by that I mean in their delivery. In addition, street forecasts have always been extremely conservative regarding eBay. For eBay to say they are comfortable meeting street forecasts means very little to me. eBay's stock market cap depends on eBay BEATING expectations SIGNIFICANTLY.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (4292)	7/27/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: Danny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Management nervous? Did not give me that impression. What I heard is a very comfortable projection of the company's future. Funny that how subjective one can be even though the same cc call is broadcasted to everyone:)

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (4292)	7/27/1999 2:09:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7772

Here is another TROUBLESOME aspect of this report. Total transaction volume on eBay increased only 15 percent over the previous quarter. And THAT number includes any successful completions in the outage time frame. The number of auctions listed was up 28 percent over the previous quarter. This means that eBay was MUCH LESS EFFECTIVE for sellers than it was the previous quarter. (Listings up 28 percent, but results only up 15 percent.) The complaints from many sellers that their auctions were performing poorly is anecdotal -- but the eBay report confirms that these complaints were in fact WELL FOUNDED. Less success for sellers means they start to look elsewhere, listing fewer items on eBay. It would appear that the 29M auctions for eBay last quarter was too much supply and not enough demand. So, either sellers have to settle for less, or cut back on the number of auctions they list. Neither of which is good for eBay (although eBay would prefer the former, since two-thirds of their revenues come from listing fees). Geez, I was already disappointed with the auction count slowdown in growth, but the indication is that the supply is already too high compared to the demand. This bodes very poorly for auction count growth (and hence revenues) this current quarter, because as we all know, supply ultimately has to meet demand.