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To: Bilow who wrote (37861)	7/27/1999 6:18:00 AM
From: d:oug	Respond to of 116796

Bilow, I wonder if this post of 2 months ago is still telling it like it is ? I think one of the things that throws many economists and investors off is that they fail to realize that with a system of fiat credit you can temporarily distort the free market relationship between savings, investment, interest rates, return on investment, and asset values. So when they discount a distorted snapshot of inputs they come to "new era" valuation conclusions that make perfect sense under the assumption of a continuation of the prevailing distortion. But that distortion eventually gets removed from the system and equilibrium gets returned. That's why our system works. In this cycle the prevailing conditions abroad have served to extend and feed that distortion. In addition, the Fed, Treasury Dept., IMF and other central bankers have been working feverishly to avoid facing equilibrium right now. Perhaps it's a timing thing, perhaps they are irresponsible, perhaps they are incompetent, perhaps it's pure politics, perhaps they don't think it's their job to make bubble determinations, but I don't think they disagree. Lastly, much of Wall St. and corporate America has behaved irresponsibly in promoting the excess for their own short term profit, IPOs, stock options etc... Some may also be taking advantage of "this Fed's" willingness to bail them out. Combine all this with public ignorance and you get one dooozy of a bubble.

To: Bilow who wrote (37861)	7/27/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116796

Hi Bilow: Why be worried? Nothing lasts forever and at some point most of the fools wake up and realize its time to get out or transfer assets to their money market. Determining that transition point from greed to fear is not so easy. A lot of frustration must set in first. How many failed rallies must we get before Fear takes over? The greater the greed the greater the coming fear. As long as one is prepared for the down turn, and/or properly hedged, there is nothing to Fear.