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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (27809)	7/27/1999 5:40:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

'kensey' has recommended _COMPX (Long) 'kensey' said: Nasdaq Comp is ripe here for a bounce. The index sits near to 2600 which represented the top end of the prior range of trade (this line is drawn in). During the April through June period, 2600 represented the top end and 2400 (this line is drawn in) represented the bottom. It was the fifth attempt in June that 2600 was successfully breached and a price breakout ensued. Note how through the April - June period volume slackened - this foreshadowed the successful breach when volume expanded off the final bounce of support at 2400 in mid-June. Diminishing volume through the April - June period can be observed by eyeballing the volume indicator graph - note how the slope of the 26-day EMA (in green) has a downward slope. This is the most typical set-up for a breakout rally. Which makes sense as many headed for the sidelines awaiting Greenspanian droppings. And as I recall, the rally was due to Greenspan offering soothing inflationary words. And now he offers something of the opposite. Somehow I find this guy a tad inconsistent. Do things really change that much over a couple of weeks? Yet it's an accurate manifestation of how fast market sentiment changes. And since that time we have had a second consecutive report that monthly inflation number coming in at unchanged. But now back to renewed fretting, this time over the August meeting, which is almost a month away! So we sag until then? Nah. Channeling that interim bounce. The good news is that the slew of pessimistic CEO's are now decidedly off the stage. Bond yields have been relatively flat over the past 3 weeks which indicates that a rate hike is not being priced in. Note : all of this is just a theory. I really haven't bothered to read anything financial as there really is no point when things are going badly. At any rate, the drop off in volume in many of the large Nasdaq Composite component stocks coupled with what I deem significant support at 2600 seems the set-up for a bounce. And today's slow fade on low volume suggests the last remnants of residual sellers who had a tough time finding any buyers. Which serves them right as anyone selling a large block this late into a decline should find another occupation. Looking for their slop to load my feedbag. This bounce will not constitute a return to upside trend but simply compose a set-up for a retest of 2600 in the near future. But in the least a 2-day rally to 2700 seems doable. Depending upon how spirited, perhaps 2750. Prices may sag a bit at the open, but that could be the buy-op. So a tentative buy of the first bounce. If prices surge at the opening, hit the bid. But if prices sag at the open and don't look back, that's bad news and the selling that I resisted doing today will have to commence. But if sag not, perhaps rewarded for picking up select issues towards the end of the day, which mostly consisted of select semi's (CREE, which I got stopped on but then bought back towards the close as volume was low and prices here sit on the 50-day EMA, PMCS & SDLI which looks like they want to go, CMTN which smacks of wanting to do something big and was able to hold onto it's gains after a spirited snap back from an early morning decline, IDPH for momentum and BGEN as a candidate to pull what IDPH pulled this week). Due to the fact I'm getting rail-roaded in recommend land due to the inability of the system to accept stop limits (which are necessary if one trades at this time), just the index this time so at worst I'll suffer a 2 percent loss. I'll leave up all those other weeping red numbers of shame. kensey