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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (4833)	7/27/1999 8:34:00 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 12823

MY two cents for the wireless investors in ERICY Thread: It is indeed time for ADSL. Hey, Am I not an anomaly in this Thread populated by wireless investors?? There is a growing dependence on telecommunications for everything from electronic mail to electronic commerce. (No news here) Those advantages that only large companies can get now, must be available for the smaller enterprises as well. 30% of all productivity gains depend on telecoms. ADSL finally dropped its Video on Demand roots and now is positioned right for VoADSL (VoATM). An IAD as CPE, voice -packetized- over ADSL to a gateway. The gateway -at the C.O.- converts voice back to TDM and route it to the telephone switch (and now you get why my 'fixation' with fixed lines). But you connect with the switch with a GR-303 or V5.2 interface. Data out of the gateway and over to a data network. (Here you see analog cards at the swicth being made obsolete) Data networks do what they are good at. Same with PSTN, it does what it is good at. Thus, a CLEC does not need to start voice from scratch. And this interim solution fits nicely with the ILEC that will not strand it investments in circuit switch. It may not be exactly that 'new world' Cisco wants us to live in but is a step towards it. There is not such a thing as a definitive technology (wireless it isn't) but interim solutions implemented as it becomes business sense to implement them. But eventualy traditional switch vendors AX100EW5E will integrate the gateway functionality above on its switches and the world keeps turning. Then, as the minutes, now being switched over the PSTN, leaves it and being most of them mobile to mobile, further parts of the AX100EW5E will be made obsolete. When? You mobile investors would ask. How about 10+ years? This is mainly a US-centric view, Europeans, being what they are, (probably waiting for Bangemann report on this issue) will proceed at a slower pace. Hopefully not for long. Will Nordic countrioes behave differently than the rest of Europe? Perhaps not. The country most in line with this scenario above is Germany. But that is becoming too long.