To: RangeRover who wrote (812 ) 7/29/1999 1:44:00 PM From: Joe Mintz Respond to of 858
Unfortunately, the risk mentioned in my post above concerning interest rate fears has come to pass. In particular, labor cost data showed a bit too much strength, which has already weighed on bond markets and could pressure the Fed to act earlier than expected. In such a case, participants flock to dump the most speculative growth stocks. SPLN has not achieved the status of AMZN or AOL. Traders may be worried about possible falls in liquidity as leveraged investors sell off positions, and these fears have proven self-reinforcing on the back of the not-so-timely (mild) downgrade. In reality, SPLN represents a holding of many financial institutions and other investors who will probably stay in for the long-term. Furthermore, revenue growth has remained entirely robust, with substantial gains in e-commerce. As the recent dive is more related to macroeconomic and broader market concerns, the issue should enjoy a healthy comeback as conditions stabilize. It should be recalled that such volatility is not new for SPLN. In the wake of the Russian default and ensuing financial turmoil last year, the price dropped as low as 7 in a virtual collapse. We do not have a crisis at the current time. Furthermore, according to my information, major participants seem to have cut down on their degree of leverage. This does not mean that I would favour going long the market, but I would remain confident in selecting a few undervalued issues with buoyant prospects which have not posted unsustainable gains in previous rallies. All these financial market trends involving flows and rate movements, which pose a great burden for a young, struggling stock like SPLN right now, should not affect the incredibly bright future for the company in the long-term. Although caution is clearly warranted in the short-term, given the real threat posed by higher borrowing costs and market weakness, a price of over 200 per share represents a distinct possibility over the next 3 to 5 years. Finally, as long as bond markets do not implode further, the plunge on high volume is encouraging from a technical viewpoint. Statistically, such issues tend to rebound in subsequent weeks. J. M.