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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (7213)	7/27/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

"I am one of those who suspect that Brinker will not be able to call the moves that will supposedly enable his subscribers to sidestep a bear market. At least not accurately enough to be worthwhile and to be profitable. However, I also feel that I cannot do it either. " Okay, fair enough. Let me add, however, a couple of points: 1. Brinker has a (I assume it's not chicken entrails) complex empirical model, developed over years through hard work and testing. His model has worked for me. I presume you don't have a model of the same stature. ;) 2. Brinker has never said he will be able to call a top within 5%, more or less. He said a) he expects to and b) time will determine the actual outcome of the Model. 3. The Model is just that. A model. As such it is a map. A map should never be confused with the territory--the map is not the territory. Or, as the world's second best jugglers said: "You can't live on a Rand-McNally on the wall." (Apologies to Mr. Korzibski.) As for me, the Model's success rate of calling pull-backs, gift horses, new highs, often pinpointing the hinge pins to the day suggests that auguring a bull top is distinctly likely. We are dealing in probability-land here. That's a land I can live in. With all best wishes, David Todtman (Your correspondent from a warm, sunny, and most pleasant Vancouver Island)

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (7213)	7/27/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

<<I am one of those who suspect that Brinker will not be able to call the moves that will supposedly enable his subscribers to sidestep a bear market. At least not accurately enough to be worthwhile and to be profitable. However, I also feel that I cannot do it either. So I will stay invested in and out of a bear market, if and when it happens.>> Yours is a responsible stand, because at least you're not misrepresenting his positions. I adhere to Bob's model because it has done well so far and appears to have a logical basis, but I recognize that intelligent people can differ, and it is differences of opinion, after all, that make a market.