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Biotech / Medical : Biotech vs. Shorts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (56)	7/27/1999 4:43:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 427

take a look at "bounce"..... exchange2000.com GELX and AVIR (no longer in portfolio) were our only real big mistakes. PGNS also got hit hard, but we had already traded out of a majority of the position at a nice profit. No, I don't really follow them. I sort of learn stuff, well after fact. (for newbies, the cost basis was 100K.... the portfolio program doesn't allow for profit taking and maintenance of the original basis)

To: LLCF who wrote (56)	7/27/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 427

David, Yes, I follow GELX. They are a good example of a company where their first product (Geltex) has been slow to build and this has been seized on by the shorts with a vengeance. Personally I think they are good value at the current depressed price (and I own a little), because I think that Geltex will ultimately do well. (In particular, I think the market is ultimately not just dialysis patients but many patients with early kidney failure). At current levels I think there is not much risk left in them, and a fair amount of upside. An interesting comparison is the only other dud in "bounce" - PGNS. Here their first product (and their stock) got off to a tremendous start, amidst some subdued whining by shorts that the market was limited. Turns out that the shorts here were right, and the early growth not only suddenly slowed but even reversed. (Sales for the current quarter came out today, and were much better than last quarter but still not good enough to turn a profit). Peter