Good evening Poseidonas,
Per your request, my comments regarding your last post are:
<<1. When they reached 17,100 feet they stopped drilling. The samples at this point must have indicated that they have reached the pay zone.>>
Perhaps. Or, maybe samples identified an overlying well defined "marker". Or, maybe samples showed nothing. Maybe they just had a really good drilling break. Or, perhaps they had suggestions of gas on the mud log chromatograph. Or, maybe they had a good gas kick !!!
But, whatever they had, they had good reason to believe that they are at or very, very close to the top of the Temblor formation. Precisely what it was that told them this is rather academic. The key is that they would not "normally" set intermediate casing until they believed that they were drilling at a depth which was just above or just into the Temblor formation. That's all that really matters.
<<2. After the casing is complete, they will drill out the shoe and begin entering into the pay zone at about 100 feet per day.>>
Yes, after cementing the casing in place and allowing some "curing" time they'll begin drilling out and deepening. Actual penetration rates can easily exceed the 100 feet per day number that I "throw out" as an estimated average penetration rate. Some days they'll likely make closer to 200 feet. But, on other days they may not make any progress at all if they have "hole problems" to work through. I have been told by others that the Temblor is a turbidite deposit. So, there is a possibility that they may drill into some huge boulders and that can slow even the best of drillers down, at least a tiny bit.
<<3. The pay zone is estimated to be 2000 to 2500 feet thick, therefore, this will take about 3 to 4 weeks to reach total depth.>>
That agrees with my timing "guess". But, of course, depending upon what they encounter as they drill into the Temblor they could elect to stop drilling and run production casing just 500 feet into the zone, or even just 200 feet in. They will deal with what Mother Nature has dealt them when they find out what it is that they hold in their hand. At the moment, we have only our best guesses. Hell, I'm sure we could all conjure up a scenario where they'd even stop drilling as little as 20 - 50 feet into the zone !!
<<4. Assuming the pay zone is established at 2000 feet thick, can they estimate the volume of gas. (ie. Volume = Area * Thickness)>>
Well unfortunately the estimate is more complex, but to answer the question, Yes, they will be able to make a volumetric reserve estimate after they have the logs run on the well. Several critical assumptions will be required and it will not be a very precise estimate, but it'll be better than anything presently available.
Just for clarification, the "gross" pay thickness might turn out to be ~2,000 feet thick. But, the porous sand interval (i.e. the "net" pay) will be something less. Picture the "net pay" as being comprised of a number of separate porous sand intervals all separated by thick shale beds. We'll be very fortunate if the "total net pay" approachs 85% of the "gross pay".
<<5. If my info above is correct then one may conclude the following:
The longer it takes to drill to total depth means that
a) the pay zone is thicker,
b) larger gas volume reserves,
c) = higher price activity for all the Joint Ventures shares.
In other words, we don't necessarily have to wait for them to drill to total depth and announce the reserve amount. Once we get into the 2nd or 3rd week of drilling into the pay zone, we should already know that the reserve size is massive and the share prices should start jumping rapidly.>>
Sorry, but it's just not that simple and it would be very risky to make those assumptions. For example, it may be taking a long time to get to TD but only because the drill pipe twisted off 20 feet into the Temblor formation and they haven't been able to recover the string after 20 days of trying. Or, it may be taking a long time to reach TD because (a) they have encountered numerous boulders while drilling through the turbidites, or (b) they have hit some slower drilling conglomerate or chert intervals, or (c) they have some sloughing shales to deal with, or (d) the mud system is getting contaminated with natural gas and so they have to spend a lot of time just circulating to "clean it up" so as to prevent another blowout, or the list goes on !!
I do wish that I could give you a precise timetable for every event that will unfold between now and TD. Unfortunately, that is humanly impossible !! So, one must be very careful as to what conclusions one jumps to between here and TD. I can tell you that if they drill to TD, run their logs but do not run any production casing, then the exit doors will not be wide enough. Other than that, we're stuck waiting for a news release. We either have faith in the play or we don't. And, God help those that hear but don't know how to interpret or question all of the "rumors" that will start to circulate around the middle of next week !! (I will personally ignore "almost all" rumors over the next 3-4 weeks! I've placed my bet and I fully expect to see the other hand now.)
Just the same as we have recently been told that we'd know everything by this week, next week I fully expect that the thread will be inundated with more rumors of all sorts of gas kicks and of more near blowout situations, etc. Well, SO WHAT ?? We already know that there's gas here at ELH ?? Big F'n deal !! A kick won't tell us anything about the reserve size !! And, a kick won't tell us anything too revealing about potential production rates !! (Those are really the only two things that matter now.) So, even if they get gas kick after gas kick all the way to TD, what does it mean ?? Well, it really means squat because every kick could in fact be coming from the top 2 feet immediately below the casing that is now being landed. It DOES NOT mean that they have hit a really thick pay interval. IT DOES MEAN that they have to slow down and be pretty damn careful or they'll fry another rig and possibly a few men !!!
So then what does it mean if they don't get any gas kicks ?? Well, that really means squat too, EXCEPT it does show that the weight of the mud column is enough to counter the reservoir pressure and to continue drilling safely.
Stories of gas kicks, or of the lack thereof, or rumored pay numbers between now and TD will be interesting. But, they will be "noise" and generally speaking quite useless. We need to wait for log interpretations now. Everything else will be of very limited utility to most.
Hope this helps you out, Poseidonas.
Later,
grayhairs |
