To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (21228 ) 7/27/1999 10:46:00 PM From: dennis michael patterson Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
Bedford Associates: Tuesday July 27, 1999 Dodging Bullets Yesterday we began this section by telling you that Monday would be a very important session for both bulls and bears. The concept was surprisingly simple, if bulls failed to hold support at DOW 10,860 we felt they would be in big trouble. At fate would have it, by the time the dust had settled, the DOW closed just above that level, 10,863 to be precise. Have bulls dodged a bullet and is the market now ready to move higher? We know this much to be true, stocks are extremely oversold and in the past such conditions have always given way to big advances. As we begin trade today we think the odds are good bulls will begin returning to the long side but we would be remiss if we suggested, even for a moment, that the worse is clearly over. The bigger problem for bulls is technical damage is be incurred that is not easily repaired. Yes, it is important that they hold 10,860 on a closing basis, a close below that level, the 50-day moving average would turn most technical traders bearish and that would not be a good thing. But the fact that so many longer term charts are being turned over is far more worrisome. Sooner or later this longer term damage is going to lead to a decline through the 50-day moving average and much bigger problems for bulls. In the very short term we still expect strength. Unless there is overnight news that forces stocks lower expect a significant rally into the Greenspan testimony Wednesday. At this stage DOW 11,000 looks like a likely resistance level but we are willing to give bulls the benefit of doubt..