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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dclapp who wrote (21236)	7/27/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 99985

I have plenty of basis - for my hopes. Because hopes are all we ever have investing. There is no surefire way to predict anything. Charts may trim the odds but that is it. Just like card-playing. Who will pull an ace? Who will fold? Who will bet heavily? Mass psychology combined with price logic and economic health are the best ways to sense a market. Timimg is difficult nomatter how many fibonacci numbers you crunch. Half the time bearishness is bullish and vice versa. A lot of it is dumb luck. If I buy ATT tomorrow for instance, nomatter what the market does, how do i reallly know if some good or bad news will move the price? I don't. It's all educated guessing. If anyone had the surefire prediction mehtod they'd be billionaires many times over. The richest man in the world Bill Gates made most of his money by sheer luck. A brilliant guy, but he had no idea what would happen to him. The safest way to invest is by pure fundamentals, but the nets have no fundamentals and they are the greatest gainers in this bull market. And maybe for good reason though I am mostly avoiding them right now. What I bank on are undervalued growth stocks or turnaround plays or stocks with great stories going forward. Or just great stocks on big dips. Sometimes momentum too though I consider this riskier. Is it? Not necessary. Most day-traders ONLy care about momentum and many of them do very well. Will the market rise or fall tomorrow? Only Allah knows. Hell, maybe he doesn't even know. But I'm wagering it will. And my money is on the table. Even longterm investors are gambling. My father never sells a stock and has made millions just holding and holding. But what if the past five years had been a bear market?