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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken who wrote (7359)	7/28/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Ken	Respond to of 9818

<<Do Not Get Sidetracked. Here Is the Biggest Problem. From North's site: Link: techweb.com. Comment: If someone asked you what the biggest problem of y2k is, what would you tell him? It's a two-part answer. Give up? I hope not. The biggest problem is that the code is broken in a world dependent on computers. Do not let anything deflect you from dealing personally with the implications of this central fact. We live in a world in which the division of labor is extensive. Our social life-support systems are dependent on it. The entire social system is at risk because the code is broken. Oh, I have a bit of fun now and then with Koskinen, de Jager, and other folks who are good for comedy relief. But they are ultimately a side show. They are irrelevant. Their PR pieces delay a few of the social effects of the inevitable, but cannot stop the clock or alter the calendar. One computerized system or other may get fixed because of delayed panic, but the vast majority are not going to be fixed, worldwide. Y2K is systemic. Jane Garvey and her press releases are indicative of the bureaucratic mind set, but they do not change the facts. "The FAA is compliant! No, really. This time it really is!" Where is the third party verification? Where are the compliant airports? What will the planes run on, water? And where are the compliant municipal water systems? The same is true of the press releases from corporate PR flaks. The code is still broken. Just-in-time production/distribution means that 99% of the people could not protect themselves more than marginally even if they wanted to. They don't want to. They want to keep their way of life at what will soon become below-market prices. They do not want to be awakened. They would not believe the truth even if there were not people lying to them full-time. They could not buy what they will need in 2000 even if they wanted to. The supply lines are full. The economic system cannot readjust at low cost to a looming crisis: a world without functioning computers. General Motors has 2 billion lines of code and 100,000 suppliers. We are waiting for any of them to become compliant. That says it all. But I have posted 5,000 items on this site because people will do anything they can to avoid thinking about the obvious. They want to believe Koskinen. It takes a continual act of will to disbelieve Koskinen. Here is a piece that has good guys and bad guys. The fact is, there is hardly anyone in either group. The bad guys (doomsayers) are a tiny minority. No one listens to them. I like to think I am chief. I have no impact on the beliefs of billions of people. This site does not have the bandwidth to have any effect on billions of people. The good guys are the fixers. There are very few of them. There are very few fixed companies. There is no fixed industry. Both groups are on the fringes. The code is broken. The problem is everywhere, in every system. It is not close to being fixed. It is almost August. Humpty Dumpty sits on a wall. Humpty Dumpty will have a great fall. All of the cheerleading and all the king's men will not put Humpty together again. This is from INFORMATIONWEEK (July 26). * * * * * * * * * * But Y2K doesn't just pose a problem by itself. There are problems posed by the repercussions of the year 2000 crisis. For example, Y2K represents the greatest opportunity for fraud and theft in the history of computing--maybe the history of the world. Among those using Y2K to prey on the fear and ignorance of others are a small but very dangerous group of financial advisers, religious zealots, and IT vendors--as well as all varieties of cons, scams, frauds, and crackpots--all eager to make money from businesses that want to avoid a potentially serious situation. The fraud and deception these predators practice come neatly packaged as products, services, and self-serving statements. But companies with good systems management, security, audit, and control practices--and, most important, a good B.S. detector--will be more immune to such problems. As for the rest, hopefully they'll learn fast--if they survive. Link: techweb.com.