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To: bill meehan who wrote (53474)	7/28/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

ho ho.. i do believe we have thought that before -g-

To: bill meehan who wrote (53474)	7/28/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 86076

Bill, i recently had an exchange with a thread mate about a week and a half ago... me : maybe we should just go long on micron mythster : well, if you want to gamble, go to the casino meanwhile, how much is mu up in the last 1.5 weeks <ng> ike

To: bill meehan who wrote (53474)	7/28/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

someone presented a chart recently that depicted the flow of money into growth funds this year...as everything in this mania it was off the charts. Lemming express it is. btw, the Dow recently hit the 250% exponential trading band above it's 20-yr. moving average. this has happened only thrice in this century: in '29, '97 and now. thrice in this century the Dow has fallen below it's 20 yr. MA: in the post '29 , the late 30's to early 40's and the '74 bear markets. in the late 70's to early 80's it bounced around the 20-yr. MA, using it as support before this phenomenal bull market started. currently the 20-yr. MA resides somewhere in the 4,000's. a true bear market should push the Dow below it's 20-yr. MA at some point, which by then will presumably be at a higher level. a significant break of the 250% upper envelope to the upside is a record the mania has yet to achieve. hb

To: bill meehan who wrote (53474)	7/28/1999 1:57:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Bill, have we not seen before that when a sector becomes the biggest part of the S&P 500 that sector is topping out longer term. We saw it with the Energy sector in the early 1980's when it got to be over 30% of the SPX. Someone from MER was on CNBC during the 3 PM hour the last few days making just this point. It may have been Dick McCabe. They pointed out that Tech was overweighted and this was a signal that it's relative fortunes should be turning soon.