To: wlheatmoon who wrote (53489 ) 7/28/1999 2:07:00 PM From: John Pitera Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
DRAM prices still going up, hence strenght in Pos 07/27/99 Micron Technology (MU $52.00,1-S,Tgt $75.00) Jonathan Joseph --SUMMARY:--Micron Technology--Semiconductors 07/27/99 Micron Technology (MU $52.00,1-S,Tgt $75.00) Jonathan Joseph --EARNINGS PER SHARE-------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 08/98 EPS $0.04A $(0.23)A $(0.50)A $(0.42)A $(1.10)A Previous 08/99 EPS $(0.19)A $0.08A $(0.07)E $(0.20)E $(0.38)E Current 08/99 EPS $(0.19)A $0.08A $(0.07)E $(0.20)E $(0.38)E Previous 08/00 EPS $(0.06)E $0.05E $0.21E $0.40E $0.60E Current 08/00 EPS $(0.06)E $0.05E $0.21E $0.40E $0.60E Previous 08/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $3.85E Current 08/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $3.85E Footnotes: 07/27/99 Micron Technology (MU $52.00,1-S,Tgt $75.00) Jonathan Joseph --FUNDAMENTALS-------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:1S Prior:No Change Price (7/26/99).....:$52.00 P/E Ratio 08/99.....:N/Ax Target Price..:$75.00 Prior:No Change P/E Ratio 08/00.....:86.7x Proj.5yr EPS Grth...:15.0% Return on Eqty 98...:N/A% Book Value/Shr(99)..:14.74 LT Debt-to-Capital(a)28.4% Dividend............:$N/A Revenue (99)........:3448.10mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:266.3mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:13847.6mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:(a) Data as of the most recently reported quarter. Comments............: 07/27/99 Micron Technology (MU $52.00,1-S,Tgt $75.00) --OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------ In what is turning out to be one of the most volatile DRAM markets in the last 10 years, prices late Friday and Monday in Taiwan picked up again. This latest round of firming, in our mind, is a return to the generally positive pricing trend we have seen over the last month. It is also a plus for Micron Tech, which, we believe, has upside potential to $75 with downside risk to $45, a 5:1 return/risk ratio. After hitting a low of about $5.40 on Thursday, the bellwether 64Mb picked up to the $5.80-5.90 range in Taiwan on Monday. The reasons are several: 1) Demand has picked up sharply, particularly in Taiwan, where Intel has run short of 440BX and ZX chipsets, Pentium and Celeron chipsets, respectively. Board makers are saying demand for processors in the Taiwanese market has been extremely good in the last two weeks. 2) Buyers are becoming concerned about low DRAM inventories at the supplier side. Micron has worked off its 7 weeks of inventory to below 5 weeks, while the Koreans and Taiwanese are said to be running tight. Most DRAM makers are running losses, with and industry-wide average cost of about $5.75, and are not killing themselves to flood the market, even if they have product. Given the strong seasonal upturn, we believe the environment for PC related components, including Micron and Intel (INTC, 1M), remains positive.