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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (48513)	7/28/1999 1:57:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

I sleep GREAT! Check out the article in the post before yours (about power prices skyrocketing). NG prices climbing steadily - up about 33% in last few months alone. The companies that make gas turbine power generators are SWAMPED with orders. NG Turbine plants are coming on line right and left. AEP, the largest coal fired coal power producer, is having SERIOUS problems meeting demand. EPA is about to fine coal fired plants for overproducing. Energy deregulation is creating a new industry: Nat Gas fired power generation. Oil not being drilled for means less gas available. As you mentioned, TMR seriously oversold. TMR succesfully using 3D seismic to locate wells. Since can't margin TMR, MEXP, others, can't be squeezed out by margin calls. Oh yeah, Cold weather is a few months away. ALL trends are in favor of Nat Gas prices going up even more. Yes, I sleep very well knowing it is just a matter of time... TMR, MEXP, TEXP comprise 80% of holdings. All holdings are in small E&P's. Not trading at all anymore because convinced I have optimal portfolio now. Side note: TMR has many more shares outstanding than CRK, but has EXACT same debt interest payments. Not sure why TMR scares you but CRK doesn't. For me it is the other way around.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (48513)	7/28/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Respond to of 95453

Gary, It's reassuring to know that Shell Oil owns roughly 40% of TMR which they received (in addition to some cash) in exchange for all Shell's South Louisiana onshore oil and gas properties. I'm pretty sure that Shell will not stand idly by while their equity in TMR drops to zero as a result of liquidity problems caused by debt service issues. Additionally TMR has recently made some very nice discoveries which will significantly add to production in the face of substantially higher oil and gas prices. I think the company will do fine unless oil and gas head back down to $10/bbl and $1.50/mcf which i believe is unlikely anytime soon. Ron Clark

To: Gary Burton who wrote (48513)	7/28/1999 2:40:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Loading up on RRC - anyone else ??? 20% off sale from the recent $7 high RRC spiked to $7 on the joint venture news (I sold out - lucky timing...) - which triggered analyst upgrades and is great news. Here at $5 1/2 its too good to pass up... Deutsche Bank has a new upgrade to $10 as a price target for RRC and had great things to say about their execution and this new joint venture. Now loaded in CRK, strong position in RRC - buying on any weakness sub $5 1/2 - as low as they want to take it...Also loaded in HSE which is the real sleeper in the nat gas stocks... Now only 25% cash - waiting patiently on MEXP weakness and looking at OEI UPR XTO on any retracement... Those who sold at OSX 80 and have rotated into the E&P retracements on stocks like CRK HSE & RRC here; are nicely positioned... We just had 20% trading moves in mere days in these 3... and also in MEXP. Only MEXP have I yet to buy back much, much cheaper and it's still 10% cheaper than it was... I still see nothing technically, or fundamentally to take the driller, or service stocks higher anytime real soon here... We are still seeing the Street spin on the storage numbers. Untill this gets worked out, I do not see the Oil Pit Traders taking us substantially higher. Many people see a technical retracement in crude oil to $18 here... These E&P's may have bottomed - their fundamentals are improving; where the driller & service companies are not. The dynamics of nat gas prices for the Nat Gas pure-play companies is an added bonus. The only stocks I'd worry about missing here are the undervalued small & mid cap E&P's who got sold off here. If you didn't rebuy here of late - then do it here, right now - ala HSE who just bounced from the mid $12's to $14 again (off from $16 recent high). RRC looks to break out from $5 1/2 to $6 1/2 - $7 on any positive nat gas news, or off of their earnings reporting. This is a 20% short term pop waiting to happen imho...and with a $10 target per Deutsche Bank; a near double in 12 mos. << How can you sleep with 50% of your portfolio in TMR? I think I will have trouble with my total 9% weighting in the 2 of them combined (vbg). >> ... this has been the secret to my success of late. I only own 3 stocks here; CRK HSE RRC - and am 75% invested. This is not the textbook method for conservatism, but the Oilpatch isn't about conservatism imho; it's about elephant hunting !!! .... maybe if you own Exxon/Mobil it's conservative etc.. but this is about making 30-50% to ''doubles'' in the short term.... Give me the Buffet ''mantra'' of - "diversity is a hedge against ignorance'' ... for ''trading'' here in this enviroment. good luck all