Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (42426)	7/28/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Tough love had it's chance last year. AG saved the day. You're just too stubborn to acknowledge it -g-

To: Mike M2 who wrote (42426)	7/28/1999 4:34:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

COMMENT: In his July monetary policy report to Congress, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested that the stock market is experiencing a speculative bubble. However, he also indicated that it isn't the Fed's job to make that call, or to do anything about it. If it is a bubble, and the bubble bursts, then the Fed will act to mitigate the damage. In other words, even if stock prices continue to soar into record territory, the Fed won't tighten credit conditions unless the positive wealth effect overheats and economy and revives inflation. I believe that competition and the deflationary consequences of Internet will keep inflation near zero. In my opinion, it is a bubble--which is a bear's way of staying bullish. So what could burst the bubble? Beats me: All that comes to my mind is a Y2K-caused recession and deflation. SUBSCRIBERS: I've been tinkering with the Fed's Stock Valuation Model. The new, improved model includes variables measuring risk and long-term earnings expectations. The new model leads to the same conclusion as the stripped-down version: The market ain't cheap. Investors expect earnings to grow 15% per year for the next 5 years. That's overly optimistic, in my opinion. See my latest Topical Study at yardeni.com PUBLIC: I discuss the new, improved stock valuation model in the Weekly Audio Forum. A new, improved version of the US Stock Sector Derby is available on a weekly basis in the Stock Market Lab. Y2K: I am currently assessing the latest data on Y2K. I will publish my conclusions in an August report tentatively titled, "Y2K" Eyes Wide Shut." Meanwhile, have a look at the Special Y2K Poll Series at www.peoplepolls.com. MOVIES: "Eyes Wide Shut" is a combination of a "serious" Woody Allen flick and "Caligula." I didn't know they had those kinds of parties in Glen Cove, and I've lived on Long Island for several years! "Arlington Road" is an entertaining terrorist movie with a twist, but Jeff Bridges overacts. Dr. Ed ****************** Please forward as appropriate. To unsubscribe, reply with REMOVE in the subject field. ****************** Home: yardeni.com Weekly Audio Forum: yardeni.com Global Economic Analysis: yardeni.com Global Economic Briefing: yardeni.com Topical Studies: yardeni.com US Forecast Table: yardeni.com Ecofax: yardeni.com Global Portfolio Strategy: yardeni.com Earnings Forecast: yardeni.com Global Markets Briefing: yardeni.com Stock Market Lab: yardeni.com Stock Valuation Calculator: yardeni.com Y2K Center: yardeni.com Y2K Reporter: yardeni.com Y2K Netbook: yardeni.com Y2K News Fax: yardeni.com Y2K Action Day: y2kactionday.com Y2K Corporate Disclosure: 209.208.199.147 People Polls: peoplepolls.com