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To: dbblg who wrote (70383)	7/28/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Ganesh -- for the next few months, could be down to around 100. This is what makes low yielding Japanese bonds sound good vis a vis higher yielding US bonds. The attraction fuels covering of the yen carry trade and so on. Coupled with rising rates in Japan, a stock market with some growth prospects, and a booming trade surplus (for Japan) it becomes hard to hold back the tide as the Japanese government has tried to do -- as I mentioned, there is shock in Japan that the government has failed in this task. They had been issuing a statement several times a day and were throwing tens of billions of dollars in yen at the market -- no luck. So 100 may be in the cards -- despite the howls from Tokyo.

To: dbblg who wrote (70383)	7/28/1999 10:44:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Wednesday July 28, 10:01 pm Eastern Time FOCUS-Japan June output data unexpectedly strong TOKYO, July 29 (Reuters) - Japan on Thursday announced a surprisingly strong jump of three percent in its June industrial output from the previous month, but economists warned that production growth could dip again later in the year. The three percent preliminary rise compared with an average forecast of a 1.7 percent rise in a Reuters survey of economists this week. The 13 forecasts ranged from rises of 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent. For the April-June quarter, output was down one percent from the previous quarter. The figures were especially closely watched by economists since they provide a key clue to the second quarter gross domestic product figures, to be announced in September. The government has said it would determine whether a new budget with additional fiscal measures is required after seeing those figures. The Trade Ministry also forecast a rise in manufacturing output in July and August, which it said will be helped by expected increases in computer-related production and exports of iron and steel to Asia. Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei average got a boost in early morning trade on Thursday following an announcement of the data, while the Japanese government bond market sank as it saw the data as another sign that the nation is on its way to economic recovery. The yen rose slightly against the U.S. dollar. ''The figure was unexpectedly strong,'' Mamoru Yamazaki, senior economist at Paribas Capital Markets. ''It is likely that Japan's industrial output has hit bottom in the April-June quarter and inventories adjustments have completed,'' he said. But he warned that while output in the July-September period is expected to stay strong, it risks falling again in the October-December period since the effects of the government's economic stimulus steps could fade by then. In a statement, the Trade Ministry said production appears to be solidifying at the bottom, but said it was too early to say Japan's production trend was turning upward. The volatile monthly output figure had shown revised declines of 1.0 percent in May and 3.4 percent in April.