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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (70388)	7/28/1999 6:04:00 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Sarmad- But right now all I have in it is cash and short on eBay. What's your timeframe/priceframe for your EBAY short? Randy

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (70388)	7/28/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Sarmad <The only explanation is that there is still plenty of easy money to do these speculations, right?> <G> Oh no, it is not the only explanation. Have you ever been fishing? Here is how it works: The fish gets the hook in its mouth and fights like hell, you reel it in. Then the fish fights like hell and you let it out a bit. Then you start reeling the fish back in a again. The fish gets exhausted and you just reel em in, let em out a bit, and then reel em in some more. What you saw today was the fisherman letting out the fish a bit. Stick round, the fish almost always ends up in the frying pan. Lesson: Sell the rallies.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (70388)	7/29/1999 1:39:00 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Sarmad -- Foreigners poured $300 B into US stks and Bonds in 98 -- pulling out now: See story below: Thursday July 29, 12:22 am Eastern Time FOCUS-After a lonely dollar battle,Japan now waits By Yoshiko Mori TOKYO, July 29 (Reuters) - Taking a respite from their lonely battle in currency markets to curb the yen, Japanese authorities now seem content to watch and wait, letting the dollar's value ebb against not only the yen but also other major currencies. This new air of detachment by Japan -- the main dollar purchaser -- could eventually lure central banks of the United States and Europe into joining Tokyo in supporting the dollar from further tumbles, analysts and bankers say. ''The risk premium for the dollar perceived by the market is getting high. I wouldn't be surprised if the United States taps its own coffers to defend its currency should the dollar slip decisively below 115 yen,'' said Taisuke Tanaka, global foreign exchange strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. The dollar's downside risk involves chances of a pickup in the momentum of Europe's recovery, a further tightening of U.S. credit policy, and widening gaps in the economic outlook for Asia and Latin America, all of which could translate into foreign capital outflows from dollar assets. ''The ECB would also be reluctant to see the value of the euro go up too far, too soon as a result of the market devouring the European recovery scenario before it takes off,'' Tanaka said. Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa has hinted Japan will no longer bear the responsibility of propping up the dollar by itself, after having bought some $30 billion in its repeated currency interventions in the past two months. ''The dollar's fall to this level reflects factors related to the dollar. It was a result of factors in the United States,'' Miyazawa said on Wednesday. Since July 22, the Japanese authorities have completely stayed out of the market despite strong market expectations for them to keep coming in to buy dollars on dips. Shin Nagai, vice president treasurer at the Treasury Department of ABN-AMRO Bank Tokyo, commenting on Tokyo's silence, said: ''Tokyo and Washington are testing each other's patience.'' For Washington, waiting too long before throwing a lifeline to the dollar would only accentuate its weakness against all the other major currencies, thus making it hard to sustain foreign capital inflows to U.S. markets, he said. For Tokyo, letting the yen stay strong could nip a nascent economic recovery in the bud by depressing exporters' incomes. Mitsumaru Kumagai, senior economist at Industrial Bank of Japan, said: ''The dollar's fall to around 110 yen is a red zone for joint currency intervention, because at that point Japan and the United States should be able to agree that they have a common interest (in defending the dollar) at least for a while.'' ''In view of the Bundesbank's reluctance to manipulate currencies through interventions, the ECB, at least on the surface, may only back Japan-U.S. joint dollar support,'' he said. But Europe also has its own political and economic interest in checking the euro's persistent strength. Bundesbank President-designate Ernst Welteke on Tuesday halted a euro rally when he was quoted by a German newspaper as saying he did not want a strong currency that hurt exports. Kumagai said: ''Looking at the history of U.S. foreign exchange policies, the United States has been inclined to step into the market to check dollar weakness when the dollar's trade-weighted index was near 100.'' The index, announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve, fell to around 100.79 by July 27 from 104.88 on July 12. But in the longer term, Kumagai said, he believes Washington aims for a ''soft landing'' from its official ''strong dollar'' policy, which drives up the U.S. balance of payments deficit to unsustainably high levels and annoys influential industries supporting the Democratic Party. A monetary source said: ''There is a chance of such operations (joint dollar buying) because relentless weakness in the dollar would only motivate foreign investors to pull more money out of the U.S. markets, which would drive up U.S. interest rates and drive down the Dow.'' The Industrial Bank of Japan estimates that Europeans accounted for about two-thirds of a total $300 billion that foreigners poured into U.S. bonds and stocks in 1998. Kumagai said U.S. data on recent capital flows is not yet out, but there are signs that at least part of the $300 billion has left the U.S. market for such places as Japan and Europe. Japan's Ministry of Finance says foreign investors, mainly U.S. and European, bought a net 4.6819 trillion yen ($40.54 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the first half of 1999. The dollar traded at around 115.60 yen early on Thursday afternoon in Tokyo, far below the rate of 122.87 yen where Japan had chased it through lonely dollar purchases earlier this month.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (70388)	7/29/1999 1:46:00 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Japanese institutions reduce US holdings -- fear US stocks will decline: Wednesday July 28, 11:52 pm Eastern Time POLL-Japan investors to boost Euro bond weighting By Akiko Ishiwata TOKYO, July 29 (Reuters) - Japanese institutional investors plan to raise their investment in European bonds in August, but will favour stocks over bonds in their overall allocation for a fifth straight month, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday. In the monthly Global Asset Allocation survey, which asked 10 Japan-based financial institutions in late July about their investment strategy for August, the average overall portfolio weighting for stocks rose slightly to 52.55 percent. The weighting for bonds also edged up, to 33.88 percent, while the weighting for cash fell to 13.58 percent from 15.01 percent. The survey found that investors were planning to raise their weighting of euro-zone bonds within their fixed income portfolios. The weighting for bond investment in Europe including Britain rose to 53.51 percent from 48.86 percent in the previous survey, exceeding the 38.17 percent weighting for the United States and Canada, down from 41.71 percent previously. Within Europe, the allocation for German bonds rose sharply to 21.67 percent from 17.79 percent the previous month. Societe Generale Yamaichi Asset Management maintained its overweight position in euro-zone bonds and stayed underweight on British bonds, while lowering its exposure to U.S. bonds to neutral. Due to renewed speculation of another credit tightening in the United States in the wake of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, investors expect a jittery Treasury market and are taking a cautious stance. The weighting for Japanese bonds stood at 7.67 percent, the lowest since the Reuters asset allocation survey began, and far below the benchmark of 21.28 percent. Investors cited low yields as the reason for the decline, whereas in the past they had been concerned about the possibility of an oversupply of bonds stemming from potential increases in the issuance of Japanese government bonds. With regard to stocks, the survey found that investors' weighting for the United States and Canada stood at 44.66 percent, up from 43.37 percent, with Europe including Great Britain at 32.78 percent and Japan at 20.44 percent. Despite the popularity of stocks relative to bonds, some investors were concerned about the potential for a correction in the U.S. stock market that could drag down European and Japanese stock markets. Nomura Securities said it would reduce its allocation to U.S. and Asian stock markets, while raising its euro-zone stock weighting, in line with global capital flows from the United States to Japan and Europe. A negative outlook for the dollar and renewed pressure on the U.S. stock market mean it is prudent to take a cautious stance on investment in stocks, Nomura Securities said. ''The impact of yen-selling intervention by Japanese authorities is weak since it has been conducted in the face of a shrinking disparity in economic sentiment between Japan and the United States,'' Nomura said. Investors said the Tokyo stock market was due for a downward correction due to the yen's rise, which tends to make Japanese exporters less competitive. In the absence of fresh indicators suggesting a recovery in the Japanese economy, moves in Tokyo stocks would be dictated by moves on Wall Street, they said.