Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (14729)	7/28/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Random thoughts on the AcceleRouter market. Looking over the list high growth markets from my previous post, I think it would be relatively easy to guesstimate the size of the AcceleRouter market. AcceleRouter "seamlessly" installs in front of existing routers. And let's do it conservatively. There are 500,000+ CSCO routers currently installed. Plus who knows how many other vendor's routers - let's ignore them. Assume that over the next five years half of those Routers get upgraded or replaced - a reasonable assumption as most of the older ones are being sorely taxed right now, and the problem only gets worse, never better. Of those 250,000, assume 80% get upgraded with router accelleraters rather than replaced - again reasonable as network managers really hate major network changes if they can avoid them (replaced means a sales opportunity for MRVC too), we get a market of 200,000 router accellerater upgrades in the next 5 years. If we assume MRVC can capture 25% of this new market (again reasonable as CSCO does not have a good router accellerater), we get sales of 50,000 AccelleRouters over the next 5 years. The base AcceleRouter unit is $14,000. Assume only base units (as we don't know accessory prices), but each actual sale would be higher. 50,000 X 14,000 = $700 million dollars in revenue over 5 years - just from this one product. Even if you cut that number in half, you still get more than 1 full year's sales out of this one product alone. Comments?