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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (337)	7/28/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: moat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Ramsey wrote: >>>>> Lets take $4 as the FY2000 earnings. We are trading at 40 times earning. Don't you consider that "fully valued"? Don't forget when I say fully valued, it does not mean QC will no longer increase in value. Just think, if the PE remains at 40 and QC's earnings grow at 30% from FY to FY, the stock price is going to rise by 30% per year (you do the math), year after year, not bad by most standards. <<<< The answer to your question is no. Respectfully Ramsey, may I suggest you read Warren Buffett. Intrinsic value is defined here (a few pages down under this link): berkshirehathaway.com Investors make money by figuring out the difference between intrinsic value and today's stock quote.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (337)	7/28/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13582

To get back on topic.... I don't think you have said anything in disagreement. In hind sight, it is very easy for us to say how UNDER VALUED QC was and investing in QC was a slam dunk. At current price, all I am saying that QC is no longer trading at a discount, but FULLY VALUED. While I dont know if the Q will return what it has over the last six years, I think that prospects for future growth are still HUGE. However, as before, the Q faces considerable execution risk (LindyBill may have had it right when he said that investing after the Q court victory might have been the best time). Just one scenario in which the Q would continue its phenomenal growth over the next couple of years....W-CDMA turns out to be the vapourware that Maurice has said it will be. At a minimum this would force NTT Docomo to convert to CDMA2000 due to the competition from DDI/IDO. The European community might attempt to wait for W-CDMA to be perfected but the rest of the world would most likely change their plans to CDMA2000. At this point who might be expected to supply the vast majority of ASIC's for 3G? Imagine if you will, the Q supplying 40-50m ASIC's per quarter sometime in the year 2002. Each of these would be at a considerable premium to the current ASIC's. Oh yeah even if you consider just next year, the $4 estimate for next year is way too low. Sorry to interrupt the current flow of posts....we now return to your reguluarly scheduled broadast (well we made it through almost 350 posts, not too bad). Slacker